The dollar fell against most major currencies on Thursday, after U.S. unemployment claims rose unexpectedly last week and U.S. new home sales dropped far more than expected in March. The U.S. Department of Labor announced that individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week increased by 1,000 to 295,000 when analysts had expected a 4,000 decrease. In addition, new home sales in the U.S. dropped by 11.4% last month much worse than the 5.3% drop that was expected by analysts. In eurozone, the PMI which includes manufacturing and services activities also fell to 53.5, when the expected was 54.4, however, the euro showed very little reaction to this.
The euro is trading on negative territory against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after the dollar posted a small recovery from the previous session's weak data and as investors eye the upcoming report on durable goods orders. In the meanwhile, the euro is receiving pressure fuelled by fears that the country could be forced out of the euro zone. Greek crisis talks have moved to Riga Latvia, where a eurogroup meeting is taking place today to discuss the country's bailout programme. For today, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate while the U.S will close the week with a report on durable goods orders.
Pivot
1.078
Support
1.078
1.073
1.0655
Resistance
1.089
1.095
1.1035
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.078 with targets @ 1.089 & 1.095 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1.078 look for further downside with 1.073 & 1.0655 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed..
Gold prices posted a slight recovery yesterday after reaching weekly lows on Wednesday, after weak data on unemployment claims and new home sales pushed the dollar lower. Previous data on housing has been supportive of the U.S dollar and added to gold investors' worries that the U.S. economy is reaching the point where the Fed will be comfortable with raising interest rates for the first time since 2006. For today, the focus is shifted on the eurogroup meetings in Latvia while in the U.S durable goods orders are due to be released.
Pivot
1198
Support
1184
1078
1173
Resistance
1198
1205
1209
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1198 with targets @ 1184 & 1178 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1198 look for further upside with 1205 & 1209 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1198 is resistance, likely decline to 1184.
OIL/USD
Crude oil prices gained on Thursday as investors are watching closely on events in Yemen for any signs of a wider conflict. Saudi Arabia's pledge earlier this month to maintain production levels constant, has caused a sharp increase in prices, posting more than a 10% rise for the month. Saudia Arabia resumed air strikes on Houthi-targets in the city of Aden on Wednesday despite increased calls from the White House for a diplomatic solution to the month-long conflict. Market players have also been paying close attention to the decreasing rig count in recent months for signs it will eventually reduce market supply.
Pivot
55.75
Support
55.75
54.6
53.8
Resistance
58.8
59.6
60.25
Scenario 1: Long positions above 55.75 with targets @ 58.8 & 59.6 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 55.75 look for further downside with 54.6 & 53.8 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed.
MICROSOFT
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) posted a sharp rise on Thursday after reports that it's revenue and profits exceeded Wall Street expectations, and sales of its hardware and cloud-computing services helped to offset a decline in the company's core Windows business. The company's decline in the last quarter was offset by higher revenue from its Surface tablet, back-end server software and cloud-related offerings such as its online Office 365 suite of applications. Microsoft's overall revenue rose 6 percent to $21.7 billion, above Wall Street's average forecast of $21.1 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.
