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IForex Daily : April 07, 2014

Published 04/07/2015, 03:48 AM
Updated 09/16/2019, 09:25 AM

The U.S. dollar weakened broadly early on Monday, as indications that the U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter fuelled expectations that the Fed will delay a hike in interest rates until late 2015. The U.S. Institute of Supply Management said on Monday that its non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index slipped to 56.5 last month, in line with forecasts and down from a reading of 56.9 in February. The report came in after Friday's data from the Labor Department that the U.S. economy added 126,000 new jobs in March, the smallest increase since December 2013. The surprisingly weak data added to concerns over the outlook for economic growth after other recent economic reports pointed to a slowdown at the start of the year. However, the PMI Services Index, rose to 59.2 in March, more than one-half point higher than forecasts, causing the dollar to reverse part of the losses. The single currency found further support from hopes that Greece will repay the International Monetary Fund on time. International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde indicated that she is confident Greece will meet its obligation to make a €460 million payment to the fund by Thursday. For today the euro zone is to release revised data on service sector activity.

EUR/USD

Following the weak employment data on Friday, the euro gained some ground against the dollar early on Monday, however the U.S. dollar reversed some of the previous losses after strong services data improved the U.S. economic outlook. The PMI Services Index, rose to 59.2 in March, more than one-half point higher than March forecasts. The reading was also up more than two points from the final reading for February. A number of economists are looking at the service sector as a critical aspect of U.S. economic health. Elsewhere, Lagarde made the comments on Sunday night, following her meeting with Greece finance minister Yanis Varoufakis after exchanging views on current developments that it is commonly agreed that effective cooperation is in everyone's interest. Athens is expected to make a €460 million loan repayment to the IMF this Thursday. For today the euro zone is to release revised data on service sector activity.

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Pivot

1.096

Support

1.086

1.08

1.0745

Resistance

1.096

1.1035

1.11

Scenario 1: Short @ 1.093 with targets @ 1.086 & 1.08 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1.096 look for further upside with 1.1035 & 1.11 as targets.
Comment: The pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure.

XAU/USD

Gold prices dropped on Monday afternoon trading after the PMI Services Index rose to 59.2 in March, more than one-half point higher than March forecasts. The metal continues to drop in on Tuesday with investors focused on euro zone negotiations with Greece and on indications for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year as widely expected. While Friday's employment report represented a step in the wrong direction, there is still optimism that the rate hike will take place based on February's strong data. Gold traders will be focusing on Fed minutes due Wednesday which may give more clarity on the central bank's approach.

Pivot

1202.5

Support

1202.5

1194.5

1178.5

Resistance

1229.5

1236

1246

Scenario 1: Long positions above 1202.5 with targets @ 1229.5 & 1236 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1202.5 look for further downside with 1194.5 & 1178.5 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

OIL/USD

Oil prices fell in early trading on Tuesday, reversing part of the previous rise after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said that prices needed to remain low in coming months to achieve a slowdown in U.S. production growth.

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Goldman said that it expected U.S. crude inventories to peak in April and again by October, putting downward pressure on prices into 2016. Oil prices remain supported as Saudi Arabia raised prices for crude sales to Asia for a second month, and China signed a new deal for imports from Iran, one of OPEC's main producers. Markets will be focusing on inventory data from the U.S on Wednesday for further indications on demand for the fuel.

Pivot

49.8

Support

49.8

48.2

47.55

Resistance

52.55

53.85

55.15

Scenario 1: Long positions above 49.8 with targets @ 52.55 & 53.85 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 49.8 look for further downside with 48.2 & 47.55 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

DOW/USD

U.S. stocks were higher after the close on Monday, as gains in the Oil & Gas, Utilities and Technology sectors led the main stock indices higher. Support in prices came as expectations the Federal Reserve could hold off longer on raising interest rates offset concerns over Friday's surprisingly weak jobs report. Some of the best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), which rose 3.11% and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) which was up 1.62%. Traders will be focusing on Fed minutes due on Wednesday which may give more clarity on the central bank's approach regarding the interest rates.

Pivot

17585

Support

17585

17040

16330

Resistance

18290

18900

19200

Scenario 1: Long positions above 17585 with targets @ 18290 & 18900 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 17585 look for further downside with 17040 & 16330 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

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GOOGLE

Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) stock is retreating for the past week as the company is pursued by the EU for anti-competitive behavior, and as it appears, may have to pay huge amounts, a big piece of which is held overseas. However, two new $149 Chromebook laptops from Haier and Hisense became available last week to target the low end of the market including education and emerging markets. Google's Chromebooks have done exceptionally well in recent times, but Microsoft's Surface appears to have done better in the last holiday season.

Pivot

550

Support

535

531

527.5

Resistance

550

562

567

Scenario 1: Short positions below 550 with targets @ 535 & 531 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 550 look for further upside with 562 & 567 as targets.
Comment: The break below 550 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 535.

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