New research from Danske Bank
PMI is the only thing on the Swedish agenda this week. On the back of the continuing rise in eurozone October manufacturing PMI, we believe the Swedish equivalent performed quite well. Supportive factors would be rising international demand, a weakening SEK and improving competitiveness in export markets. This said, it is important to realise that PMI bounced up sharply in September and a slight downward correction in October does not seem unlikely. The possibility of a downward correction is even more pronounced for Services PMI, which in September reached the highest level since January 2011. This jump appears to be out of sync with NIER's services confidence indicator.
In Norway , we attention to centre on October housing prices. Prices have now fallen for six successive months and developments in the number of properties on the market do not give grounds to expect prices to bounce back yet. We think the supply surplus needs to be reduced before we can expect prices to stabilise, so we are most interested in what happens to the stock of homes for sale. Another month of falling prices could fuel speculation that developments in the housing market will force Norges Bank to keep interest rates low, or even cut them.
In Denmark , currency reserves data on Thursday takes centre stage. The EUR/DKK cross has been trading above 7.4400 for most of October and thus some way off the levels when the Nationalbank intervened in February and March this year. The bank has presumably therefore not felt any need to intervene for a seventh successive month, the longest period without intervention since early 2014. See New guidelines for indebted households - little market impact later in this document, which looks at the new guidelines for loans that represent a high level of debt relative to household income.
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