Gold for Thursday, April 9, 2015
Over the last week gold has sprung to life surging higher away from the key $1200 level back to a seven week high above $1220 before easing back and finding support at the key $1200 level. A couple of weeks ago gold eased a little for a few days to below $1185, although for the best part of the last few weeks gold has moved strongly off the support at $1150 and then found some new support from the $1200 level. It still has its eyes firmly on the key $1200 level and it will be interesting to see whether it can remain above this level and continue to receive support. Prior to the recent move, gold remained quite steady enjoying strong support from the $1150 level whilst some eyes would have been looking lower. The next obvious technical support level lower is around $1130, and if it was to move through this level, then it would be trading at multi-year lows and looking very bearish. When gold broke through the rock solid support level at $1200 recently, it opened itself up to some potential downside which was played out a couple of weeks ago.
Throughout the second half of February gold enjoyed rock solid support from the key $1200 level which held it up on numerous occasions. For about a month gold drifted steadily lower down to a one month low near the key $1200 level before finding the solid support at this key level. At the beginning of December gold eased lower away from the resistance level at $1240 yet again back down to below $1200. During the second half of November gold made repeated runs at the resistance level at $1200 failing every time, before finally breaking through strongly. Throughout the first half of November Gold enjoyed a strong resurgence back to the key $1200 level where it has met stiff resistance up until recently.
Throughout the second half of October gold fell very strongly and resumed the medium term down trend falling from above $1250 back down through the key $1240 level, down below $1200 to a multi year low near $1130. It spent a few days consolidating around $1160 after the strong fall which has allowed it to rally higher in the last couple of weeks. Earlier in October Gold ran into the previous key level at $1240, however it also managed to surge higher to a five week high at $1255. In late August Gold enjoyed a resurgence as it moved strongly higher off the support level at $1275, however it then ran into resistance at $1290. In the week prior, Gold had been falling lower back towards the medium term support level at $1290 however to finish out last week it fell sharply down to the previous key level at $1275.
Spot gold fell further on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve officials acknowledged risks from overseas and a weak start to the year at their March meeting, according to minutes from the meeting released on Wednesday. The meeting concluded with the Fed opening the door to a June rate hike, and the minutes said that “several participants” went on record saying they expected upcoming economic data would warrant an initial rate increase that month. But even those less certain about the June timing felt the economy had improved enough for the Fed to shift into a meeting-by-meeting assessment of whether rates should move higher. Spot gold was at $1,200 an ounce, down 0.9 percent. Bullion climbed to its highest level since Feb. 17 at $1,224.10 on Monday, after weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls cooled prospects of an earlier interest rate move. U.S. gold for June delivery closed down $7.50 an ounce at $1,203.10.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
Gold April 9 at 00:55 GMT 1201.6 H: 1212.5 L: 1197.6
Gold Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1200 | 1150 | — | 1240 | 1300 | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, Gold is edging lower towards the key $1200 level. Current range: trading right above $1200 around $1201.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1200 and 1150.
• Above: 1240 and 1300.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for Gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for Gold has moved back above 60% as it has eased lower back to below $1210 after its recent surge higher to above $1220. The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 08:30 UK Trade Balance (Non-EU) (Feb)
- 08:30 UK Visible Trade Balance (World) (Feb)
- 11:00 UK BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting and rate decision
- 11:00 UK BoE MPC – APF Total (Apr)
- 11:00 UK BoE MPC – Base Rate
- 12:30 CA Building permits (Feb)
- 12:30 CA House Price Index (Feb)
- 12:30 US Initial Claims (04/04/2015)
- 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories (Feb)
- JP BoJ Publish Monthly Report