Gold for Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Gold has sprung to life in the last 24 hours surging higher away from the key $1200 level back to a seven week high above $1220. It is presently consolidating in a narrow range right around $1215. A couple of weeks ago gold eased a little for a few days to below $1185, although for the best part of the last few weeks gold has moved strongly off the support at $1150 and then found some new support from the $1200 level. It still has its eyes firmly on the key $1200 level and it will be interesting to see whether it can remain above this level and continue to receive support. Prior to the recent move, gold remained quite steady enjoying strong support from the $1150 level whilst some eyes would have been looking lower. The next obvious technical support level lower is around $1130, and if it was to move through this level, then it would be trading at multi-year lows and looking very bearish. When gold broke through the rock solid support level at $1200 recently, it opened itself up to some potential downside which was played out a couple of weeks ago.
Throughout the second half of February gold enjoyed rock solid support from the key $1200 level which held it up on numerous occasions. For about a month gold drifted steadily lower down to a one month low near the key $1200 level before finding the solid support at this key level. At the beginning of December gold eased lower away from the resistance level at $1240 yet again back down to below $1200. During the second half of November gold made repeated runs at the resistance level at $1200 failing every time, before finally breaking through strongly. Throughout the first half of November Gold enjoyed a strong resurgence back to the key $1200 level where it has met stiff resistance up until recently.
Throughout the second half of October gold fell very strongly and resumed the medium term down trend falling from above $1250 back down through the key $1240 level, down below $1200 to a multi year low near $1130. It spent a few days consolidating around $1160 after the strong fall which has allowed it to rally higher in the last couple of weeks. Earlier in October Gold ran into the previous key level at $1240, however it also managed to surge higher to a five week high at $1255. In late August Gold enjoyed a resurgence as it moved strongly higher off the support level at $1275, however it then ran into resistance at $1290. In the week prior, Gold had been falling lower back towards the medium term support level at $1290 however to finish out last week it fell sharply down to the previous key level at $1275.
Gold rose 1 percent to a seven-week high on Monday, climbing for the second straight session after U.S. jobs rose at the slowest pace in more than a year, fueling expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve could postpone an anticipated rate increase. Nonfarm payrolls rose 126,000 last month, less than half February’s pace and the smallest gain since December 2013, the Labor Department said on Friday. The data pushed the U.S. dollar lower, making dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. That data could prod the U.S. central bank to delay a rate increase that analysts had expected to come in June or September amid signals from the Fed it was ready to tighten monetary policy in view of a strengthening labor market. “I think people are feeling comfortable being long gold after the payrolls data,” said Yuichi Ikemizu, branch manager at Standard Bank in Tokyo. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,218 an ounce after hitting a session high of $1,224.10. U.S. gold for June delivery climbed $17.70 to settle at $1,218.60 an ounce, the highest since February 13.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
Gold April 7 at 01:10 GMT 1214.7 H: 1224.3 L: 1203.2
Gold Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1150 | — | — | 1240 | 1300 | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, Gold is trading in a narrow range right around $1215 after surging sharply through the key $1200 level. Current range: trading right around $1215.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1150.
• Above: 1240 and 1300.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for Gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for Gold has moved back below 60% as it surged higher to above the key $1200 level. The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:50 (Mon) JP Current Account (Feb)
- 01:30 AU ANZ Job Ads (Mar)
- 01:30 AU Retail trade (Feb)
- 04:30 AU RBA – Overnight Rate
- 07:00 UK Halifax House Price Index (7th-10th) (Mar)
- 08:00 EU Composite PMI (Mar)
- 08:00 EU Services PMI (Mar)
- 08:30 UK CIPS/Markit Services PMI (Mar)
- 09:00 EU PPI (Feb)
- 14:00 US IBD Consumer Optimism (Apr)
- 19:00 US Consumer Credit (Feb)
- AU RBA holds interest rate meeting
- JP BoJ Monetary Policy meeting (to 8th)