LONG TERM TREND: BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND: NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
Gold broke down below the key 61.8% retracement level of 1221 yesterday on heavy selling, falling as low as 1206 before stabilising. The break below this important Fib level suggests a return to 1167, unless gold can recapture 1220 very quickly.
The release of the FOMC minutes this evening could trigger another sharp move in gold, with the bears looking to press home their short term advantage following a month of declines after the price peaked at 1307 in January.
Oil has bounced off lows and is moving higher - the technical picture has improved recently with the resistance area to watch being near $54 a barrel.
Equities markets remain at or near all time highs, dampening investment interest in gold, whilst the dollar has paused to consolidate recent strong gains.
Support can be found at 1204-1206, 1200, 1192, 1180-1183, 1175-1178, 1167, 1154, 1145-1147, 1131, 1124, 1100, 1085, 1045 and 1000. Gold has bounced back after breaking below the critical 1180 level and is now moving higher after a classic "bear trap". The break of the intermediate down trend suggests a new rally phase is just beginning.
Resistance can be found at 1217, 1228, 1233, 1240, 1246, 1252-1256, 1271-1273, 1278, 1282-1284, 1290-1292, 1300-1302, 1305, 1310-1312, 1322-1325, 1333-1335 and 1345. The break of the intermediate down trend line in an impulsive move higher suggests an end to the down trend and the start of a new rally leg in gold.