XAU/USD is quite a confusing mess and here is why, although I think I can find an opportunity this week. From mid-May to mid-June we held a 1 month sideways channel from around 1930 up to 1970/80.
At the beginning of the third week of June, we broke down to form a new sideways channel from around 1935/40 down to 1900/1892.
On the weekly chart we still have that potential triple top pattern, with peaks in August 2020, March 2022 & May 2023 ( I pointed this out in May of course). We have sunk steadily since the third peak.
Therefore we do have 2-month bear trend, but you would have had to be incredibly confident to have held a short all of this time, when we have spent 80% of the last 2 months trading sideways. On Friday we recovery all of Wednesday & Thursday's $33 loss. That 2-day loss had wiped out the Friday to Tuesday gain - so we are literally up for 1 to 3 days, then down for 1 to 3 days in the sideways trend
Just to make matters more confusing we have a declining wedge pattern on the daily chart - which is most often a short-term bullish pattern. However, we had a failed breakout above the upper trend line on Friday - which adds to the confusion because I am sure bulls saw this as a buy signal.
What can I deduce from this confusing picture? On the 1 hour chart we could have formed a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern. The black horizontal neck is meeting the green 500 hour moving average (which held the rally on Friday).
A convincing break above the 500 HMA & Friday's high at 1932/1935 should be a buy signal for this week. It should also confirm a breakout from the declining wedge pattern on the daily chart. I would suggest a long with stop below 1926.
Targets: 1960/65 & perhaps as far as 1975/80.
Failure to hold above 1927 means we remain stuck in a sideways channel & if so I will be lost for an idea for a few days.
Silver recovered from Friday to Wednesday & then wiped out most of the gains in a big drop on Thursday before recovering most of the losses on Friday. My best guess is that this is a bear flag pattern but this means we have a sell signal on a break below 2250 this week - which is in contrast to the bullish idea I have in Gold above.
Two bear flags on the silver charts?
Maybe a break above last week's high at 2330 will be a buy signal for this week targeting 2360/65.
WTI Crude August I thought had completed a breakout of the 1-month triangle pattern on Thursday with a break above the upper trend line at 7100/7150. But prices collapsed before a recovery & by Friday I had given up on the pattern &n thought I had misread the signal.
Only on Friday did the pattern play out, which was frustrating, with a low for the day in the 7150/7100 area before we shot higher to the 100 day moving average at 7380. Assuming I am now right about the pattern, we have a potential target of 7700/7750.
We could try a long at 7250/7200 with stop below 7150.