Talking Points
- Crude Oil Traders To Keep One Eye On Escalating Ukrainian Turmoil
- Gold In Tug-Of-War As Geopolitical Tensions Offset A Stronger Greenback
- Palladium Targeting 1,000 After Leaping Over The $900 an Ounce Hurdle
Crude oil’s recovery appears to have stalled in Asian trading today with the commodity lacking fundamental cues. Over the week ahead, Russian supply disruption fears may remain on the radar for traders following reports of escalating Ukrainina tensions. Speculation over the imposition of sanctions targeting the nation’s energy exports could offer Brent a source of support in the short-term. However, the commodity may need to find a more compelling reason to recover in the longer-term. This is given the probability that Western Europe will willingly cut off its largest energy supplier is likely low.
Meanwhile, gold and silver remain in a tug-of-war. Heightened geopolitical tensions continue to offer the alternative assets a source of support. Yet the resilience of the US Dollar has likely weighed on the precious metals. These opposing forces could keep the commodities in line for a period of consolidation.
Meanwhile, copper has brushed aside a deterioration in Chinese PMI figures today to trade marginally higher. The official and HSBC readings for August slipped versus their July prints. The indices remain in expansionary territory. However, a further slide towards contractionary readings could raise concerns over the country’s appetite for commodities. This in turn could keep copper prices suppressed.
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA
No major US data is scheduled to be released given the US labor day holiday.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude is at a critical juncture as the commodity threatens to clear the 23.6% Fib and descending trendline on the daily. A break through the nearby barrier would be required to mark a small base and threaten a more sustained recovery for the commodity.
Crude Oil: Make-Or-Break Moment For WTI
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold’s recovery appears to have lost momentum. Yet buying interest at the 1,280 floor and a low ATR reading suggests the potential for the commodity to remain elevated.
Gold: Nearby Support May Keep Gold Elevated
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The tug-of-war between the silver bulls and bears sub 19.50 continues. A parade of Doji formations suggests indecision from traders and does little to confirm a clear directional bias for the precious metal. A daily close above the nearby barrier would suggest a small base and open the potential for a greater recovery.
Silver: Dojis Denote Indecision From Traders Near 19.50 Barrier
COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
A sharp correction for Copper has yielded a Bearish Engulfing formation that may warn of further weakness. This could set the commodity up for a retest of its recent lows near the 3.08 floor. However, a clean run towards the target may prove difficult given the commodity’s recent tendency to whipsaw in intraday trade.
Copper: Cautiously Eyeing Recent Lows Following Bearish Reversal Signal
PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Palladium has cracked the 900 target offered in recent commodities reports. With the core uptrend intact the upside break opens the next psychologically-significant 1,000 handle. It is also worth noting that a void of bearish candlestick signals casts some doubt on the potential for a correction.
Palladium: Smashes Through 900 Target With Core Uptrend In Force
PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Platinum’s recovery has faltered at the 1,424 ceiling, leaving a narrow trading band in play. Within the context of a broader downtrend, selling into corrective rallies is preferred.
Platinum: Sellers Re-emerge At 1,424 Ceiling
