XAU/USD, Daily
On Friday I wrote:
In general, XAU/USD seemed more stable this week since it holds above $1,214.00, which is also a confluence of 38.2 Fibonacci Level, since Tuesday. Technically, XAU/USD in the 4-hour and Daily chart as well, satisfies quite well a year’s uptrend Channel, while many indicators seem positive on a possible reversal of the down trend since April 17.
In the Daily chart, MACD remains positive, while RSI is 39 pointing up. Therefore, I believe that a break above $1,236.00 – $1,245.00 area, which actually is the area between the significant 200 Day EMA and 50 Day EMA (also 50.0 Fibonacci), will suggest a bullish momentum for XAUUSD. In this case, it is possible to see XAU/USD getting back in Channel and to reach higher prices.
Indeed yesterday, gold breached and broke the significant 200-Day EMA, since it manages to rally yesterday to $1,237.13, a one-week high. North Korea’s missile test over the weekend provided support, while the weaker Empire State index, and subsequent dollar weakness have lifted the contract more recently.
Currently, XAU/USD is at $1,234.54, after yesterday’s close at $1,230.00. Hence Friday’s analysis on gold seems that is ready to be fully satisfied by the performance of the commodity, and by the additional positive momentum that indicators are pointing out. RSI is at 43 sloping up, long-term MACD (30,50,9) remains positive, while Parabolic SAR turned positive just yesterday.
We are anticipating a much further bullish momentum in the upcoming weeks for XAU/USD, especially once, it breaks the area we suggested on Friday. Nevertheless, if today’s US data (U.S. Housing Starts, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization), fall short of expectations, then this might weigh more on the US dollar.
