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German IFO Survey Mixed But Shows Improvement In Its Business Climate

Published 12/19/2012, 06:54 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
Risk appetite continues to weigh upon USD and JPY currencies

Notes/Observations

US House remains open to broader negotiations to avert the so-called fiscal cliff; negotiations and in-fighting continues

Japan Nov Adj Merchandise Trade Balance registers its 20th straight deficit as exports to China and Europe slump ; overall exports fall for 6th straight month

Niikei225 Index has largest percentage gain for 2012 and closes back above the 10K level for first time in 8 months; All eyes now on Thursday (tomorrow) BOJ rate decision with more stimulus expected; Other key Asian bourses were mixed

World Bank raises China's 2013 GDP growth forecast to 8.4% from 8.1% prior; believes economic slowdown might have bottomed out

BOE Dec Minutes echoed the Nov views; Interest rate vote was unanimous and Asset Purchase Target vote was again 8 to 1 with Miles dissenting

German IFO Survey mixed but Business Climate registers its 2nd straight monthly improvement

Taiwan Central Bank Interest leaves Benchmark Rate unchanged at 1.875%, as expected

South Korea President Election exit polls show Park Geun Hye (would be the first female President) to be in the lead

Greece 10-year bond yield hits post-restructuring low around 12% aided by S&P hike of the country's sovereign rating to B- from SD; outlook stable

Economic Data
(ZA) South Africa Oct Leading Indicator: 130.1 v 129.3 prior

(DK) Denmark Q3 Housing Prices Q/Q: -0.7%; Y/Y: -3.3%

(SE) Sweden Dec Consumer Confidence: -12.2 v -7.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: -15 v -19e; Economic Tendency Survey: 89.6 v 86.0e

(ES) Spain Oct Service Sector Sales Y/Y: -4.0% v -11.8% prior; Service Sector Employment Y/Y: -2.9% v -3.3% prior

(EU) ECB: €75.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €520.0M prior; €239.1B parked in deposit facility vs. €249.0B prior

(DE) Germany Dec IFO - Business Climate: 102.4 v 102.0e; Current Assessment: 107.1 v 108.0e; Expectations Survey: 97.9 v 96.4e

(EU) Eurozone Oct Current Account unadj: €7.2B v €5.0B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: €3.9B v €2.4B prior

(IT) Italy Oct Industrial Orders M/M: 0.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -12.8% prior

(IT) Italy Oct Industrial Sales M/M: -0.2% v -4.2% prior; Y/Y: -4.7% v -5.4% prior

(MA) Malaysia Nov CPI Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e

(TW) Taiwan Central Bank Interest leaves Benchmark Rate unchanged at 1.875%, as expected

(UK) Bank of England (BOE) Minutes: Voted 8 to 1 to maintain Asset Purchase Target at £375B

(UK) Bank of England (BOE) Minutes: Voted 9 to 0 (unanimous) to leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.50%

(EU) Eurozone Oct Construction Output M/M: -1.6% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -4.1% v -3.8% prior

Fixed Income
(IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills

(RU) Russia sold RUB21.4B in 2019 OFZ bond; Yield 6.61% vs guidance of 6.57-6.62%

(RU) Russia sold RUB6.6B vs.RUB16.5B indicated in 2027 OFZ bond; Yield 7.03% vs. guidance of 6.98-7.03%

(EU) ECB allotted $0.6B in 14-day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.66% vs. $3.3B

(SE) Sweden sold total SEK15B in 3-month and 6-month Bills

(EU) ECB allotted €15.0B in 3-Month Tender vs. €16.0Be

Equities
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.60% at 5,970, DAX +0.30% at 7,677, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,665, IBEX-35 -1.3% at 8,272, FTSE MIB +0.80% at 16,290, SMI +0.60% at 6,951, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,444

European equity markets are broadly higher, tracking yesterday's gains in the US equity markets. Greece's Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) has risen by 2.5%, as S&P upgraded the country's debt rating. Spain's IBEX-35 has risen by over 1%, amid the declines being seen in peripheral bond yields. Germany's DAX is trading near fresh 2012 highs, as the IFO business climate index was better than expectations and rose for the second straight month.

European banks are broadly higher, led by Greek banks, which have risen by over 8% on the session. Commodity-related firms are trading mixed, following the recent declines seen in gold prices. In Asia, the Nikkei225 hit a fresh 8-month high above the psychological 10,000 level, on high volumes, ahead of the later this week Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision. In terms of US corporate earnings, companies seen reporting during the US morning include, FedEx, General Mills and Navistar.

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