Back behind the desk after a week off… seven days in the U.K. and no rain which must be a rare event…
The past week appeared steady, initially seeing modest follow-through on the Dollar downside but then reversing. I have to say that the structures have been pretty complicated and certainly fraught with potential for misjudgements. Given that today is a partial holiday due to the many centres that are taking Easter Monday as a break I really can’t see any dramatic developments, a factor that could imply a messy day. Drawing from observations over the range of currency pairs it appears to suggest a more Dollar bearish day overall.
I see this process being one of completing corrective structures although in GBP/USD the expectation is for completing a terminal trending structure. Indeed, this could be a good vehicle to watch in terms of identifying the reversal points elsewhere…
The strength in AUD/USD came as a surprise and does seem to suggest a recycling process although there should be a greater degree of leeway here, potentially baulking in terms of Dollar gains. However, there is a “however” that could risk a move complicated daily corrective structure. For now it is just an observation but take note of key support & resistance here.
USD/JPY has a potentially more complicated outlook and therefore requires a higher level of care. I did initially come up with a decent structure in the hourly charts but I’m not quite so confident of the lower-degree development supporting the higher degree. If there is anywhere to provide any insight to this it could well be in EUR/JPY that pushed higher over last week and tends to suggest that it could see further strength although the risk in this scenario would be for choppy development.
For today, as mentioned above, the chances favour a dull day but perhaps this can provide a little more insight to the next larger move
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