DXY traded 186 pips last week. The main problem pair within overall currency markets is USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Then the question: how are currency pairs trading against each other within the respective universe?
USD traded 500 pips last week but broken down from the vital 131 points, USD/JPY traded 155 pips below and 394 pips above. USD/JPY 155 pips below were perfectly normal. USD/JPY however at 394 = DXY 2 times and EUR/USD 2.5 times. USD/JPY is trading in erratic and far too high ranges in relation to DXY and EUR/USD as its main counterparts. The story grows worse with JPY cross pairs.
USD/JPY Vs. JPY Cross Pairs
USD/JPY at 500 pips in relation to cross pair ranges trades as: EUR/JPY 429 pips, GBP/JPY 452, AUD/JPY 327, CAD/JPY 328 and NZD/JPY 259.
EUR/JPY is the problem pair and earns the last ranking for the 2nd week. USD/JPY correlates to EUR/JPY at 82% and minus 62% to EUR/USD. EUR/JPY against a high USD/JPY correlation transforms itself as a USD currency to match USD in USD/JPY. 429 pips equate to 2.5 times EUR/USD and 2.3 times DXY but below USD/JPY.
The main factor and problem with USD/JPY are trade ranges higher than JPY cross pairs. Correct is JPY cross pairs trade higher ranges than USD/JPY. Instead, USD/JPY trades even match EUR/JPY as USD/JPY Vs. DXY at 2.3 times and 2.5 times EUR/USD. USD/JPY is the leader in JPY cross pairs and is consistent with overall currency market anchor pairs.
As usual, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY were perfect in relation to ranges and big trade weeks, while GBP/JPY was erratic yet consistent to EUR/JPY.
Despite today’s analysis, the best trades for the coming week to week will remain USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs. The most consistent JPY cross pairs are CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY. The most volatile is EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. To understand EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is to profit in the weeks ahead.
The level to watch this week for EUR/JPY is 136.81 and GBP/JPY 162.04. EUR/USD’s big break is now 1.0418 and dropping. The weekly range is confined from 1.0283 to 1.0147 or 136 pips Vs. last week, from 1.0283 to 1.0136. Same EUR/USD on a different week.
EUR/USD Cross Pairs
Last week: EUR/CHF 89 pips, EUR/USD 169, EUR/JPY 429, EUR/CAD 190, EUR/AUD 276 and EUR/NZD 216. EUR/NZD is light to trade ranges and should trade the most pips overall and far above EUR/AUD. Explains up and down weeks to trade rankings. GBP/USD range this week from 1.2174 to 1.2013.
GBP Cross Pairs
GBP/CHF 151, GBP/USD 289, GBP/JPY 452, GBP/CAD 268, GBP/AUD 335, GBP/NZD 387. GBP/NZD is not bad but light compared to GBP/AUD. GBP/CAD correct should trade much higher than GBP/USD. AUD/USD big break for higher this week: 0.7001.
AUD Cross Pairs
AUD/CHF 131, AUD/USD 177, AUD/JPY 327, AUD/CAD 155, AUD/NZD 150. AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD clear drivers to AUD/CHF and AUD/USD. Watch AUD/CAD at vital 0.8986 while AUD/NZD achieves overbought and short from middle 1.1100’s. Oversold NZD/USD must cross 0.6357 for a higher break.
NZD Cross Pairs
NZD/CHF 70 pips, NZD/USD 140, NZD/JPY 259, NZD/CAD 141. NZD/CAD is a problem to NZD/USD and must trade higher to assist NZD/USD rises. NZD/CAD traded the same amount of pips as NZD/USD. NZD/CAD ranges this week: 0.8090 – 0.8019.
DXY vitals above 106.03 and 105.48. Below 105.48 targets 105.10 and the same trade as last week. Above vitals 106.52, 107.01, 107.18, and 107.39. Same DXY, different week. GBP was the lead trade category last week and should remain the best trade this week.
Labor Force Participation Rate
At 62%, the number is in the middle range of the 83-year history of nonfarm payrolls data, ranging from 60 to 65.