Friday’s break above 1.1721 in EUR/USD was not what I wanted but there was always the potential for a follow-through. I just couldn’t quite get it correct. The key issue now is that even GBP/USD broke higher and that means an expanded flat. Indeed, it has broken above the 1.3315 high and should now make one more minor high before a reversal. We’re also very close to a high in EUR/USD – in fact we may have seen the high on Friday, particularly with a solid bearish divergence.
The odd one out appears to be USD/CHF that appears to need a new low for a reversal higher – but this pair can generate mini-minor pullbacks in Wave iv and a minor blip to complete a low. As long as you place a stop by a decent margin, we should then find a quorum for the dollar to (FINALLY) get itself back on the bullish road. For the final 4th major, USD/JPY – well, given that the other pairs are just about to – or have seen their dollar lows – ideally we should see it hold above 110.28.
That just leaves AUD/USD to make a new high and then a reversal following its own expanded flat.
As for the cross, EUR/JPY has barely any room on the upside so it will need EUR/USD to reverse more firmly relative to USD/JPY. However, given the tight levels that need to hold, it’ll be prudent to make sure that key levels do not break on the downside.