There were few interesting developments on the major pairs today although the sharp euro weakening from yesterday’s highs is worth noting in key pairs such as the EUR/USD, the EUR/JPY and the EU/RGBP. The European Central Bank's (ECB) president Mario Draghi and Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann are scheduled to speak shortly, at the time of writing. In the Trend Heat Table, note that the NZD is losing steam (note also the AUD/NZD chart, below) and the CHF was today’s weakest currency. That GBP/CAD medium-term trend at 100 days is under fire and could switch lower today or tomorrow if the pair doesn’t rally from here.
Chart: EUR/USD
Despite a heavy dose of rhetoric today, the 1.3775/50 area is still intact so the short-term downtrend remains unconfirmed. 1.3850 looks like the tactical resistance.
Chart: EUR/CHF
This pair is pushing at 1.2200 again after a nice bullish reversal bar yesterday. The ECB moving towards quantitative easing (QE) is not necessarily EURCHF-negative if it brings flows into peripheral assets with it.
Chart: USD/CHF
A EUR/USD sell-off and a EURCHF rally would, of course, make USD/CHF a high-octane pair. Here, I’d like to see another rally through this 0.8850 area to confirm that we’ve put in a major low (as well as a solid breakdown in EURUSD).
Chart: USD/CAD
The USD/CAD needs to find support very soon to argue that the rally remains in place. A close below 1.1150 would pressure the near-term bullish case.
Chart: AUD/NZD
This pair is trying to make an argument for a double bottom at the 1.0-500 area. Let’s look for the medium-term trend to pick up to help confirm this. A move through 1.0750 would help as well.
Chart: EUR/AUD
I think this is the pair that is contributing a healthy portion of the AUD strength of late. 1.5000 is an important area.
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