Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of July 28th – August 1st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.
Monday, July 28th
- 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (-0.2% expected, > good for currency)
Tuesday, July 29th
- 12:30am JPY Household Spending (-3.7% expected, > good for currency)
- 12:50am JPY Retail Sales (-0.4% expected, > good for currency)
- Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales (-4.3% expected, > good for currency)
- 9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals (2.6B expected, > good for currency)
- 2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (9.8% expected, > good for currency)
- 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (85.5 expected, > good for currency)
- 11:45pm NZD Building Consents (-4.6% expected, > good for currency)
Wednesday, July 30th
- 12:50am JPY Preliminary Industrial Production (-1.0% expected, > good for currency)
- All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
- 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer (101.1 expected, > good for currency)
- 8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
- 8:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
- Tentative EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 2.81 percent with a 1.4 bid to cover ratio expected, > good for currency)
- 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (234K expected, > good for currency)
- 1:30pm CAD RMPI (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
- 1:30pm USD Advance GDP (3.1% expected, > good for currency)
- 1:30pm USD Advance GDP Price Index (1.8% expected, > good for currency)
- 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last -4.0M expected, > good for currency)
- 7:00pm USD FOMC Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
- 7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate Decision (unchanged at <0.25% expected, > good for currency)
Thursday, July 31st
- 2:30am AUD Building Approvals (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
- 2:30am AUD Import Prices (-1.4% expected, > good for currency)
- 2:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings (0.7% expected, > good for currency)
- 7:00am EUR German Retail Sales (1.1% expected, > good for currency)
- 7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
- 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
- 8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change (-5K expected, < good for currency)
- 10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
- 10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate (0.8% expected, > good for currency)
- 10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate (11.6% expected, < good for currency)
- 1:30pm CAD GDP (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
- 1:30am USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (306K expected, < good for currency)
- 1:30am USD Employment Cost Index (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
- 2:45pm USD Chicago PMI (63.2 expected, > good for currency)
Friday, August 1st
- 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (51.4 expected, > good for currency)
- 2:30am AUD PPI (0.7% expected, > good for currency)
- 2:45am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (52.0 expected, > good for currency)
- 4:30am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
- All Day CHF Bank Holiday
- 8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (54.8 expected, > good for currency)
- 8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (52.8 expected, > good for currency)
- 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (57.2 expected, > good for currency)
- 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls (230K expected, > good for currency)
- 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (6.1% expected, < good for currency)
- 1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
- 1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
- 1:30pm USD Personal Spending (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
- 2:55pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (81.5 expected, > good for currency)
- 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (56.1 expected, > good for currency)
Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD: Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 1.3433/41, 1.3451, 1.3473/82, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3538, 1.3546/88, 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3639/50, 1.3663/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/1.3710, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.
Above:1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.3416, 1.3398/1.3409, 1.3376/89, 1.3344/53, 1.3318/24, 1.3305/08, 1.3294/99, 1.3222/42, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3172/77, 1.3161/65, 1.3126, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3077, 1.3059/66 and 1.3047.
Below:1.3000, 1.2904/98, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.204132 and 1.1938.
USD/JPY: Mildly Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 101.90/102.04, 102.13/14, 102.26, 102.35/36, 102.49/52, 102.57/82, 102.93/103.01, 103.30, 103.37/43, 103.73/75, 103.82, 103.91, 104.07/19, 104.36, 104.63, 104.83/91, 105.18, 105.33 and 105.41/43.
Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.
Support:
Initial: 101.60/83, 101.52/56, 101.42/43, 101.30/32, 101.08/27, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22, 100.00, 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05,96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, and 95.44.
Below: 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.
GBP/USD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 1.6995, 1.7010, 1.7035, 1.7042/51, 1.7058/62, 1.7084, 1.7094/99, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167, 1.7176/78 and 1.7190.
Above: 1.7440.
Support:
Initial: 1.6960, 1.6951, 1.6919/20, 1.6902/09, 1.6874/81, 1.6831/44, 1.6819/22, 1.6812, 1.6802, 1.6785, 1.6777, 1.6768, 1.6755, 1.6745, 1.6730/37, 1.6716/24, 1.6692/98, 1.6683, 1.6665/67, 1.6640/56, 1.6624, 1.6611/17, 1.6592, 1.6576/86, 1.6548, 1.6516, 1.6484, 1.6458/65, 1.6441, 1.6417/18,1.6400, 1.6394, 1.6380/83, 1.6376, 1.6348, 1.6336, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6290, 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6195/98, 1.6177, 1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.
Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75, 1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.
AUD/USD: Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 0.9391/98, 0.9404/10, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9440/47, 0.9455/57, 0.9469 and 0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.
Support:
Initial: 0.9359/86, 0.9343/53, 0.9311/28, 0.9304, 0.9291/94, 0.9279/86, 0.9268/72, 0.9251, 0.9232, 0.9214/26, 0.9201/08, 0.9179/89, 0.9162/67, 0.9147, 0.9127/37, 0.9110/19, 0.9102, 0. 9072/79, 0.9061/66, 0.9054/57, 0.9042/48, 0.9041, 0.9035, 0.8994/0.9008, 0.8981/87, 0.8967/69, 0.8951/57, 0.8923/36, 0.8918, 0.8906/12, 0.8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.
Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.
USD/CAD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 1.0813, 1.0820/21, 1.0839/40, 1.0849, 1.0852/57, 1.0873/86, 1.0894, 1.0909, 1.0915, 1.0925/28, 1.0934/45, 1.0954/59, 1.0962/66, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.1032/53, 1.1069/70, 1.1089, 1.1099, 1.1102/09, 1.1116/32, 1.1141, 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1172/73, 1.1194, 1.1223 and 1.1277.
Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.
Support:
Initial: 1.0793, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/09, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.
Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.
NZD/USD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 0.8560/61, 0.8571/78, 0.8584/90, 0.8602/05, 0.8633/41, 0.8647/53, 0.8660/67, 0.8671/74, 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8712/18, 0.8734, 0.8744, 0.8764/77, 0.8789, 0.8792, 0.8821 and 0.8834.
Above: 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.8542/53, 0.8532/37, 0.8523/25, 0.8504/18, 0.8499, 0.8487/89, 0.8472/79, 0.8423/59, 0.8413, 0.8376/0.8406, 0.8359/66, 0.8322/53, 0.8302/16, 0.8291/95, 0.8285/87, 0.8280, 0.8271, 0.8263, 0.8250/55, 0.8221/41, 0.8204/14, 0.8195/97, 0.8186, 0.8171, 0.8160/63, 0.8147/53, 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872, 0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829, 0.7819 and 0.7804.
Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.
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