Forex Forecast: July 14 - July 18, 2014

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, July 14

• All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
• 6:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, July 15th

• 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
• Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP CPI (1.6% expected, > good for currency)
• 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (28.9 expected, > good for currency)
• 10:00am GBP BOE Governor Carney speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Retail Sales (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen testifies (hawkish = good for currency)
• 11:45pm NZD CPI (0.4% expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, July 16th

• 3:00am CNY GDP (7.4% expected)
• 3:00am CNY Industrial Production (9.0% expected)
• 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (-27.1K expected, < good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate (6.5% expected, < good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales (1.3% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD PPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report (hawkish = good for currency)
• 3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate Decision (unchanged at 1.00% expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen testifies (hawkish = good for currency)
• 4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, July 17th

• 1:30pm USD Building Permits (1.04M expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (310K expected, < good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (15.6 expected, > good for currency)

Friday, July 18th

• 1:30pm CAD Core CPI (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales (0.7% expected, > good for currency.
• 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (83.5 expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3621/31,1.3642/50, 1.3663/76,1.3682/86,1.3685/1.3710,1.3714/16,1.3731/39,1.3748, 1.3758/74,1.3784/98,1.3807,1.3810/20,1.3824,1.3832/36,1.3845/54,1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.
Above: 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.3602/15,1.3597, 1.3546/88,1.3538, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3476/82, 1.3451,1.3441, 1.3433/34, 1.3416, 1.3398/1.3409, 1.3376/89, 1.3344/53, 1.3318/24, 1.3305/08, 1.3294/99,1.3222/42, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3172/77, 1.3161/65,1.3126, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3077, 1.3059/66 and 1.3047.
Below: 1.3000, 1.2904/98, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55,1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.204132 and 1.1938.

USD/JPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 101.52/56, 101.60/73, 101.83, 101.90/102.04, 102.13/14, 102.26, 102.35/36, 102.49/52,102.57/82, 102.93/103.01, 103.30, 103.37/43, 103.73/75, 103.82, 103.91, 104.07/19, 104.36, 104.63, 104.83/91, 105.18, 105.33 and 105.41/43.
Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.
Support:
Initial: 101.42/43,101.30/32, 101.19/27, 101.13/14, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48,100.22, 100.00, 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98. 84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, and 95.44.
Below: 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19,94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBP/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.7084, 1.7099, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167 and 1.7176/78.
Above: 1.7440.
Support:
Initial: 1.7062,1.7042/51, 1.7010, 1.6995, 1.6951, 1.6919/20,1.6902/09,1.6874/81,1.6831/44,1.6819/22, 1.6812,1.6802,1.6785,1.6777,1.6768,1.6755, 1.6745, 1.6730/37, 1.6716/24,1.6692/98, 1.6683,1.6665/67, 1.6640/56,1.6624, 1.6611/17, 1.6592,1.6576/86, 1.6548, 1.6516, 1.6484,1.6458/65, 1.6441, 1.6417/18, 1.6400, 1.6394, 1.6380/83, 1.6376, 1.6348, 1.6336, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6290, 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6195/98, 1.6177,1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.
Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293,1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198,1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75,1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985,1.4966/67,1.4884,1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9391/98,0.9404/08, 0.9420/24,0.9428/33,0.9440/47, 0.9455/57 and0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27,0.9536/42,0.9571, 0.9585,0.9592,0.9620,0.9640,0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.
Support:
Initial: 0.9360/86, 0.9343/53, 0.9311/28, 0.9304,0.9291/94, 0.9279/86 ,0.9268/72, 0.9251, 0.9232,0.9214/26,0.9201/08, 0.9179/89, 0.9162/67, 0.9147, 0.9127/37, 0.9110/19,0.9102, 0.9072/79, 0.9061/66, 0.9054/57, 0.9042/48, 0.9041, 0.9035, 0.8994/0.9008, 0.8981/87, 0.8967/69, 0.8951/57, 0.8923/36, 0.8918, 0.8906/12, 0.8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.
Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USD/CAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0736, 1.0742/85, 1.0813, 1.0821, 1.0839/40, 1.0849, 1.0852/57, 1.0873/86, 1.0894, 1.0909, 1.0915, 1.0925/28,1.0934/45, 1.0954/59, 1.0962/66, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.1032/53, 1.1069/70, 1.1089, 1.1099, 1.1102/09, 1.1116/32, 1.1141, 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1172/73, 1.1194, 1.1223 and 1.1277.
Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.
Support:
Initial: 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/07, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608, 1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.
Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8834.
Above: 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.8792,0.8789,0.8764/77,0.8744, 0.8734, 0.8712/16, 0.8693/0.8700,0.8671/74, 0.8660/67, 0.8653,0.8633/41, 0.8602/05, 0.8584/90, 0.8571/78, 0.8560/61, 0.8542/53,0.8532, 0.8523/25, 0.8504/18, 0.8499, 0.8487/89, 0.8472/79, 0.8423/59, 0.8413, 0.8376/0.8406, 0.8359/66,0.8322/53, 0.8302/16,0.8291/95, 0.8285/87,0.8280, 0.8271, 0.8263,0.8250/55,0.8221/41,0.8204/14,0.8195/97,0.8186, 0.8171,0.8160/63, 0.8147/53, 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013 ,0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872,0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829,0.7819 and 0.7804.
Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.