EUR/JPY near term outlook:
In the July 31st email, affirmed the view of an important bottoming in the 136.00/25 support area (Feb low, base of bull channel from July 2012), and now with potential for an upside acceleration directly ahead. Note that the market is higher from the Aug 8th temp/false break of the 136.00 support (reached 135.70), technicals are bullish (see buy mode on the daily macd at bottom of chart below) and the market is seen within a much larger period of correcting from the Dec high at 145.65, with eventual new highs after (see longer term below). Note too that $/yen has jumped upward with potential for sharply higher prices ahead (see yesterday's email), while eur/$ has weakened into that long discussed, 1.3235/50 support area (38% retracement from the July 2012 low at 1.2045 and potential area to trigger a bottom for a few weeks), and with both adding to the potential for an upside surge in eur/yen. Currently the market is testing resistance at the bearish trendline from June (cur at 137.65/90), with a break above increasing the likelihood of further gains directly ahead. Further resistance above there is seen at 139.25/40 and the bearish trendline from Dec (currently at 140.40/55). Support is seen at the bull trendline from Aug 12th (currently at 136.70/85) and again the 136.00/25 area. Bottom line : potential for a further, upside acceleration ahead.
Strategy/position:
With further, potentially sharp gains favored ahead want to be long. But with some risk that the bearish trendline from June holds temporarily, would wait for a break 25 ticks above to enter. Would also buy on an intraday break given the potential for an upside acceleration, and don't want to risk having to buy at substantially higher levels by waiting for the close (if that does indeed occur). Would then stop on a close 25 ticks below that bull trendline from the lows (assuming that the upside break occurs first). Note was stopped on the Aug 1st buy above the bear trendline from June (then at 137.70) on Aug 5th below the bull t-line from late July (then 137.25, closed at 137.00).
Long term outlook:
No change in the long held view of an extended period of consolidating since the Dec high at 145.65 (wave IV in the rally from the July 2012 low at 94.15), and with eventual new highs after (within wave V). Looks like this correction may have been completed at the recent 136 area low (also the base of the bullish channel since July 2012, see weekly chart below), targeting such new highs ahead (see in red on weekly chart/2nd chart below). Bottom line : with at least a few weeks of upside (and potentially more) of upside favored ahead.
Strategy/position:
Switched the longer term bias to the bullish side on Aug 1st at 137.70, and would stay with that position for now.
Current:
Nearer term : buy intraday break 25 ticks above bear t-line from June.
Last : long Aug 1st at 137.70 on Aug 5th at 137.00.
Longer term : bull bias Aug 1st at 137.70 for eventual gains back to the Dec high at 145.65 and above.
Last : bullish bias Nov 26th at 137.45 to neutral May 8th at 140.65.
