GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies:
Taken Positions
EUR/USD: long at 1.0920, target 1.1180, stop-loss 1.0780, risk factor **
EUR/GBP: long at 0.7175, target 0.7450, stop-loss 0.7290, risk factor *
EUR/JPY: long at 129.00, target 132.00, stop-loss 130.20, risk factor **
EUR/CHF: long at 1.0570, target 1.0990, stop-loss 1.0400, risk factor **
EUR/CAD: long at 1.3650, target 1.3900, stop-loss 1.3530, risk factor **
NZD/USD: long at 0.7615, target 0.7890, stop-loss 0.7465, risk factor **
Pending Orders
USD/JPY: sell at 119.80, if filled - target 118.20, stop-loss 120.70, risk factor ***
AUD/USD: buy at 0.7860, if filled – target 0.8020, stop-loss 0.7760, risk factor **
USD/CAD: sell at 1.2520, if filled – target 1.2310, stop-loss 1.2655, risk factor ***
AUD/JPY: buy at 93.40, if filled – target 95.40, stop-loss 92.40, risk factor ***
EUR/USD: Eurozone Economy Is Getting Stronger
(long for 1.1180)
- German Ifo's business climate index to 107.9 in March from 106.8 in February. It beat the market forecast for 107.3. Lower energy prices, the weak EUR and the European Central Bank's bond-buying programme look set to continue boosting the Eurozone. Today’s Ifo data confirmed yesterday’s strong PMI reading. Index of business expectations picked up to 103.9 from 102.5 in the previous month, while index of current conditions rose to 112.0 from 111.3. Ifo Business-Cycle Clock suggests that economic growth is getting stronger and that the economy is entering boom phase.
- European Central Bank Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen said ECB policy actions have had a clear positive impact on the Eurozone economy, but member states still need to adopt structural reforms to support the recovery.
- U.S. CPI increased 0.2% mom and was unchanged yoy in February after declining 0.7% mom and 0.1% yoy in January. CPI was expected to rise 0.2% mom and slip 0.1% yoy. The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, increased 0.2% mom and 1.7% yoy in February, the largest increase since November. A reading of 1.6% yoy was expected.Last month, domestic gasoline prices rose 2.4% mom, the largest increase since December 2013, after tumbling 18.7% mom in January. Gasoline prices had declined for seven straight months. Food prices increased 0.2% mom. Within the core there were few outstanding gains aside from used autos (1.0% mom) and medical care commodities (0.7% mom), we had moderate gains in apparel (0.3% mom), transportation (0.3% mom), shelter (0.2% mom), and new vehicles (0.2% mom).
- New U.S. single-family home sales jumped 7.8% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 539k units, the highest level since February 2008. January's sales pace was revised up to 500k units from the previously reported 481k units. The market forecast new home sales falling to at 465k unit pace last month.
- St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard, a non-voting centrist member of the Fed this year, said that zero percent interest rates were no longing appropriate in the USA and that a rate hike in the summer would still leave policy extremely accommodative.
- The EUR/USD retreated yesterday after breaking above the 1.1000 level for a while. Slightly higher-than-expected U.S. CPI inflation supported the USD bulls. We used lower EUR/USD levels to get long again after taking profit at 1.1000. We bought EUR/USD at 1.0920, in line with the trading strategy from yesterday’s Market Overview. We set the target at 1.1180.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.0029 (high Mar 24), 1.1062 (high Mar 18), 1.1115 (high Mar 5)
Support: 1.0891 (low Mar 24), 1.0886 (21-dma), 1.0768 (low Mar 23)
NZD/USD: We Used Yesterday’s Fall To Get Long Again
(long for 0.7890)
- New Zealand’s trade surplus in February amounted to NZD 50 million, below market expectations for NZD 392 million, with exports lifting 6.7% mom imports higher by 6.3% mom. The annual trade deficit to the end of February widened to NZD 2.18 billion, the biggest since August 2009.
- The deterioration in the annual deficit reflected a sharp fall in the value and volume of key dairy exports, particularly to the biggest market, China. Dairy export earnings were down 41% yoy with volumes down 10% yoy. There were smaller falls in oil and aluminum exports. Imports were up 3.7% yoy led by consumer and capital goods, including clothing and electronic goods.
- The NZD hovered near two-month highs against the USD buoyed by expectations that a rate hike in the USA may be delayed. However, worse-than-expected New Zealand’s foreign trade data resulted in a slight fall of the NZD/USD yesterday. The kiwi did not react to a 16% slide in dairy giant Fonterra's first half profit. The rate recovered in the European session today.
- We used yesterday’s fall of the NZD/USD to get long again. We opened our position at 0.7615, in line with our trading strategy released in yesterday’s Market Overview. Our target is 0.7890.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 0.7698 (high Mar 24), 0.7782 (high Jan 20), 0.7808 (high Jan 19)
Support: 0.7604 (session low Mar 25), 0.7550 (low Mar 230, 0.7504 (55-dma)