This month’s ETFReplay.com Relative Strength ETF Portfolio has been updated at Scott’s Investments and includes turnover in three of four positions.
I previously detailed here and here how an investor can use ETFReplay.com to screen for best performing ETFs based on momentum and volatility. I select only the top ETFs from a static basket of 25 ETFs and re-balance the portfolio monthly.
The buy/sell strategy for the portfolio is simple: purchase the top ETFs based on a combination of their six-month returns, three-month returns, and three-month volatility (lower volatility receives a higher ranking) and the average of the three-month return, 20-day return, and 20-day volatility. I refer to these two different sets as “6/3/3″ and “3/20/20″. The top two ETFs in the 6/3/3 ranking and top two in the 3/20/20 ranking are purchased each month. When there are duplicates in the top two, I look to the third ranked ETF in the 3/20/20 and, if necessary, the third ranked ETF in the 6/3/3. The strategy always holds four ETFs.
I track this strategy as a public portfolio on Scott’s Investments. As of the close September 28, the hypothetical portfolio was up 13.13%, since inception on January 1, 2011. Returns include dividends but exclude commissions and taxes and all trades are hypothetical so real results differ. For some backtests on these strategies please see a recent post here.
For September 28, the strategy sold its positions in Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT (VNQ) at a loss of 2.64%,Vanguard MSCI U.S. SmallCap Value (VBR) at a gain of 2.83% and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) at a loss of .38% (individual ETF returns exclude dividends).
Proceeds were used to purchase iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond (LQD), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index (SCZ). The portfolio also continues to hold its position in the PowerShares Emerging Markets Bond (PCY) .
Top 50 Trending Stocks
Minor fluctuations in rankings may not always justify selling positions each month. For example, if one ETF drops from the second highest rated to the third or fourth highest rated, it may not warrant selling the position. An investor could only sell a position when it drops out of the top 4 or 5 at the end of the month. This type of modification could be used when someone is looking to limit turnover; however, I think it is important to have whatever rule you prefer to use in place prior to making the investment decision in order to avoid discretionary or emotional decision making.
Below are the top-six ranked ETFs for this month, using both the 6/3/3 and 3/20/20 strategy:
6mo/3mo/3mo
- PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond
- LQD iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond
- GLD SPDR Gold Shares
- RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate
- PFF iShares S&P US Preferred Stock Index
- IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr Treasury
- PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond
- GLD SPDR Gold Shares
- SCZ iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index
- XLE U.S. Energy Sector SPDR
- DBB PowerShares DB Base Metals
- RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate
Below is a performance graph of the portfolio (green) versus SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and AOR (S&P Growth Allocation) from the portfolio’s inception until September 28, 2012. Total returns are similar but a significant drawdown was avoided in 2011:
Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.