This week, Sweden will be tapping SEK3.5 billion on November 23, and Denmark will be printing on November 16 and November 23. The entry level in the Nordics looks attractive ahead of the auctions and we expect good demand in particular at the Danish 10Y, as the Danish market is going to be awash with cash this autumn due to redemptions and coupons.
Our positive Scandi bond view is also supported by a very strong Norwegian NGB auction in the past week. Sweden also showed good performance, although performance this year remains dismal.
In Sweden, the week ahead contains few data points of interest. The number to look at will undoubtedly be PMI for the manufacturing industry (Tuesday, at 08:30 CEST) and the services PMI (Thursday, at 08:30 CEST) might also attract some attention.
The Norwegian FX market is currently characterised by very poor liquidity and erratic moves. Hence, a further move higher in EUR/NOK should certainly not be ruled out. But when the volatility eventually drops we still argue that the EUR/NOK will drop to a significantly lower level. Especially, if our macro economists are correct in predicting a higher growth rate in Q4. This week's numbers are expected to show that the Norwegian economy is not as weak as the FX market might think.
In Denmark, the FX reserve in September is published on Wednesday. We expect data to show that Danmarks Nationalbank did not need to intervene in September as the EUR/DKK has been relatively stable below the central rate of 7.46038. We continue to hold the view that the market is pricing in too many independent rate hikes from the Danish central bank.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.
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End Of Scandi Government Bond Underperformance?
Published 09/30/2013, 05:08 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
End Of Scandi Government Bond Underperformance?
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