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Main events are the Riksbank and ECB meetings. At the ECB meeting the question is in our view how dovish Draghi will be following the latest drop in 5Y5Y inflation expectations. Already in the introductory statement we expect him to emphasise the open-endedness of the QE programme and include that the ECB is ready to use all instruments if needed, see more in ECB preview: Dovish and slightly worried .
In terms of data releases focus is on global service PMIs and any negative sentiment effects of the weakness in China, although the service sector is mainly driven by domestic demand. For the euro area the increase in the flash estimate of the aggregate figure should be driven by improvements in the periphery countries. In the US we expect non-manufacturing ISM to stay solid but to have fallen back from an elevated level.
Euro area retail sales are due for release and based on the German figure already released it should rebound in July. The low oil price again supports private consumption, which has been the main driver of the recovery.
Riksbank monetary policy decision. Our base scenario is that it will leave the repo rate unchanged at -0.35% but it is a close call.
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