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Daily Shot: Learning From Switzerland?

Published 06/10/2015, 06:39 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

We start with the latest data on US labor markets:

1. Job openings rose to new multi-year highs.
US Job Openings
2. In particular, we see a spike in healthcare job openings while layoffs in Mining and Logging, which includes Oil & Gas, remain elevated.Layoffs: Mining and Logging

3. The NFIB small business survey shows US businesses increasingly struggling to find "quality labor" as the labor force skills gap becomes acute. In other US economic reports, we have small business earnings (based on the NFIB survey) rising sharply last month.
Small Business Earnings 1986-2015

And for those who say small businesses have limited access to credit: Their credit availability is at pre-recession levels. Moreover, new business formations are also at pre-recession highs and business loan delinquencies have collapsed.

Given what the Fed has been saying recently, the latest data from the US seems consistent with a rate hike in September - which is currently the consensus.

Before hiking rates however, I do hope the Fed takes a look at Switzerland where the currency strength has produced the worst YoY CPI decline since the 1960s. Such risks are of course much lower in the US, but this is worth considering.Swiss Inflation Rate 2010-2015

Now to the Eurozone, which continues to show strong economic progress with the GDP growing each quarter over the past 2 years.
Eurozone GDP Growth

Just to put this in perspective, here are the major economies' growth over the past couple of quarters.Q/Q Economic Growth - Major Economies

Switching to the equity markets, here are some recent trends:

1. Market technicals don't look great.
% S&P Stocks Closing Above 200DMA
2. Gold mining shares have taken a punishment over the past 5 years and continue to fall (as gold prices hover near multi-year lows). With a 2015 rate hike now highly likely, it's a tough road ahead for the sector.
Gold Bugs Index vs Gold Price 2011-2015 separator

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Shifting to the energy markets, below are the latest developments.

1. According to a report from the federal government, US crude production is expected to decline in July. Eagle Ford is supposed to undergo a particularly sharp decline. Perhaps.
Oil Production

2. US crude oil inventories declined more than expected last week. Crude oil rallied sharply on the back of these reports.Weekly Crude Stockseparator

Now some Food for Thought - 5 items:

1. 88% of Russians express confidence in Putin.Russian Confidence in Putin

2. Related to the above, increasing numbers of Russians have a negative view of the West, particularly the US (something I discussed a few months back).Russian Rates of US/EU Collapse

3.Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) usage around the world.Twitter usage

4. The fear of Brexit may be overblownBrexit Possibilities

5. Apparently the US has more women in prison than China, India and Russia combined.% US Woment Incarcerated

Disclosure: Originally published at Saxo Bank TradingFloor.com

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