Daily Market Outlook: May 30, 2014

EUR/USD

The Euro remains under pressure and consolidates around 1.36 handle, after the support was cracked on extension to 1.3585 and subsequent bounce capped at 1.3624, just under 50% of 1.3667/ 1.3585 downleg. The pair maintains negative tone and sees scope for renewed attempt below 1.36 support, where the following supports are in near-term focus: 1.3561, 12 Feb higher low; 1.3519, 38.2% retracement of 1.2754/1.3992 ascend and 1.3500, round-figure support. Fresh bears are expected to resume after completion of consolidative phase. Alternatively, clearance of recent corrective tops at 1.3624 and further extension through the next significant barriers at 1.3636/38, lower platform / Fibonacci 61.85 retracement / 200SMA, with weekly close above the latter, would signal near-term basing attempt and look for stronger bounce. Next key point lies at 1.3670, 27 May peak, / previous low and breakpoint, posted on 04 April.

Res: 1.3624; 1.3638; 1.3670; 1.3687
Sup: 1.3585; 1.3561; 1.3519; 1.3500


EUR/JPY

The pair has eventually completed 138.13/139.34 near-term corrective phase and re-tested 138.00, round-figure / Fibonacci 76.4% of 136.21/143.78 upleg so far. Near-term studies are negative that favors fresh extension lower, with clear break below 138 handle, required to resume larger descend from 143.78, which accelerated on a break of 140 previous range floor. Consolidation above 138.00 support is expected to precede fresh descend, with stronger corrective rallies to be capped under 138.70, previous support, also near 50% of 139.34/138.00 fall. Any extension above pivotal 139.34 barrier, would delay immediate bears and signal basing attempt.

Res: 138.51; 138.70; 139.09; 139.34
Sup: 138.00; 137.52; 137.00; 136.74


GBP/USD

Cable remains under pressure and extended fresh leg lower off lower top at 1.6880, which cracked psychological 1.67 support. Break here to resume bears towards .6667, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6464/1.6995, reinforced by 100SMA and psychological 1.6600 support / 1.6589, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement, seen in extension. Overall picture remains negative and sees further downside as favored scenario. Corrective attempts should be capped at 1.68zone, broken main bull-trendline and 50% retracement of the fall from 1.6917 to 1.6691.

Res: 1.6739; 1.6763; 1.6780; 1.6800
Sup: 1.6691; 1.6667; 1.6650; 1.6600



USD/JPY

The pair continues to consolidate under fresh high at 102.13, with the action being so far contained by 101.45, 50% retracement of 100.81/102.13 ascend. Near –term studies are losing traction and could trigger further weakness, with loss of near-term congestion floor at 101.45, expected to confirm near-term top at 102.13 and open way for further weakness. Extension below 101.31, Fibonacci 61.8%, to confirm bearish stance and retest of multi-month base at 101.20, with clear break here and 100.81/74, 21 May spike low / 04 Feb low, to spark fresh bear-phase and resumption of larger downtrend from 105.43, 02 Jan year-to-date high.

Res: 101.78; 101.87; 102.02; 102.13
Sup: 101.45; 101.31; 101.10; 100.81



AUD/USD

The pair maintains positive near-term tone after two-legged rally from 0.92 base regained levels above psychological 0.93 barrier. Fresh gains retraced 61.8% of 0.9407/0.9207downleg on extension to 0.9330 so far, with formation of near-term double –bottom, signaling further upside. Corrective pullback on overbought hourly condition, is expected to precede fresh bulls. Next target lies at 0.9372, 19 May lower top, ahead of key 0.9407, 14 May lower top. Previous correction tops, as well as 50% of 0.9209/0.9330 rally at 0.9270 zone, where also 4-hour bullish 20/55SMA’s crossover lies, is expected to offer solid support and contain corrective dips.

Res: 0.9330; 0.9370; 0.9407; 0.9460
Sup: 0.9300; 0.9270; 0.9255; 0.9230



AUD/NZD

The pair resumed rally off 1.0743, 21 May higher low, reinforced by daily 55/100SMA’s bull-cross, after leaving higher base at 1.08 zone, clearance of short-term congestion top at 1.0942, 04 Feb spike high, to peak at 1.0978, so far . Positive near-term technicals support fresh push for final attempt at psychological 1.1000 barrier, to confirm break above multi-month congestion and open way for stronger recovery of 1.1576/1.0488 descend. However, overextended near-term technicals suggest corrective action before bulls return to play. Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0802/1.0978 rally, reinforced by hourly 55 SMA and psychological 1.0900 support, also 4-hour 20SMA, should ideally protect the downside.

Res: 1.0978; 1.1000; 1.1050; 1.1100
Sup: 1.0900; 1.0882; 1.0853; 1.0824



XAU/USD

Spot Gold consolidate fresh losses that reached 1250 low so far, after acceleration lower was triggered on a break below short-term range, which has established fresh direction, and resumed large bear-trend off 1392 peak, interrupted by two-month 1268/1330 consolidative phase. Loss of key support at 1268 confirmed an end of range trading. Near-term focus is at the next targets at 1337 and 1231, with consolidative/corrective attempts, expected to pause fresh bears. Lower top at 1266, along with previous low at 1268, offer initial barriers, ahead of former narrower range bottoms at 1285 zone, seen as ideal cap for more significant corrective rallies.

Res: 1268; 1277; 1285; 1290
Sup: 1250; 1237; 1231; 1215