Daily Market Outlook: July 11, 2014

EUR/USD

The Euro’s near-term bulls off 1.3574, 07 July low, lost traction at Fibonacci 61.8% barrier at 1.3651 and fell sharply, erasing most of gains from 1.3574. Bearish hourly studies favor return to 1.3570 zone higher base and possible break lower, which is required to confirm lower top at 1.3649 and resumption of descend from 1.3699 peak. However, indicators of 4-hour studies hover around their midlines and need further weakness through 1.3574 low, to confirm bears back in play, with the action confirmed by bearish engulfing pattern, forming on a daily chart. Alternative scenario requires basing above 1.3570 zone and regain of minimum 1.3650 to avert downside risk on completion of 4-hour H&S pattern, seen on a break below 1.3570 neckline.

Res: 1.3620; 1.3651; 1.3662; 1.3699
Sup: 1.3587; 1.3574; 1.3559; 1.3511



EUR/JPY

The pair maintains negative tone and continues to move lower, extending descend off 139.26, 03 July lower high. Fresh bearish acceleration which cleared psychological 138 support and fully retraced 137.68/139.26 ascend, with attempts below 137.68 base, signals resumption of larger downtrend from 142.35, 08 May high and possible extension to key short term support at 136.21, 02 Feb higher low. Overall negative technicals support the notion, however, oversold near-term conditions see corrective action after over 100-pips fall, before bears take control again. Round-figure 138 level, now offers initial resistance, with stronger rallies expected to ideally hold below 138.74, lower top of 09 July.

Res: 138.61; 138.81; 139.00; 139.26
Sup: 137.66; 137.48; 137.00; 136.74



GBP/USD

Cable maintains overall bullish structure, with near-term price action being in consolidative mode and entrenched within 1.7100/1.7175 range. Studies on1 and 4-hour chart are neutral, with further directionless trading seen as likely near-term scenario, while 1.71 handle stays intact. However, overextended daily conditions require caution, as fresh weakness below 1.71 handle would signal stronger pullback.

Res: 1.7141; 1.7166; 1.7177; 1.7200
Sup: 1.7119; 1.7100; 1.7083; 1.7061



USD/JPY

The pair came under increased pressure and tested 101 support zone, after completing 101.22/102.25 corrective phase and accelerating losses on a break below 101.22. Bearish structure favors eventual break below psychological 101 support and test of key supports and short-term congestion floor levels at 100.81/74, below which to resume larger downtrend off 105.43, 2013 annual high. Hesitation ahead of important supports cannot be ruled out, with previous support at 101.43, offering initial resistance, ahead of 101.56 lower platform and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.85/101.05 downleg, which is expected to limit rallies. Only break above lower high at 101.85 and psychological 102 barrier, would neutralize bears.

Res: 101.43; 101.65; 101.85; 102.00
Sup: 101.20; 101.05; 100.80; 100.74


AUD/USD

The pair consolidates losses off 0.9454 high, after recovery attempt off 0.9327 low stalled and subsequent weakness dipped to 0.9359, erasing over 61.8% of entire 0.9327/0.9454 upleg. Near-term structure is still weak, as the price holds below psychological 0.94 barrier, keeping in play risk of retesting 0.9359 and eventual return to 0.9327 low, also daily cloud top, ahead of final attempt at pivotal 0.9320 support, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9209/0.9503 ascend and short-term higher base, loss of which to confirm top at 0.9503 and trigger further easing. Conversely, sustained break and close above 0.94 barrier, would ease bear pressure and re-focus the upside targets, with regain of 0.9454 peak, required to bring bears fully in play for attack at 0.9503, 01 July peak.

Res: 0.9397; 0.9429; 0.9457; 0.9460
Sup: 0.9375; 0.9359; 0.9339; 0.9327


AUD/NZD

The pair trades in near-term corrective mode, after fresh bears below lower, after losing 1.07 handle, as well as breaking below 1.0644, 06 May low, following full retracement of 1.0644/1.1030 upleg. The price found temporary footstep at 1.0619, with corrective action seen limited and preceding resumption of larger downtrend towards initial and psychological 1.06 support, on the way short-term target at 1.0534, 12 March higher low. Bearish studies favor further weakness, while only extension of corrective rallies above 1.0729 lower top would delay immediate bears and expose key near-term key barrier and break point at 1.0830 zone.

Res: 1.0655; 1.0670; 1.0700; 1.0729
Sup: 1.0635; 1.0619; 1.0600; 1.0550



XAU/USD

Spot Gold sustains break and stabilizes above previous high at 1333, after fresh acceleration peaked at 1344, clearing target at 1342, 21 Mar lower high. Break above Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1392/1240 descend, sees scope for eventual push towards key 1392 peak. Interim barriers lay at 1356 zone, previous peaks, posted in March and Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. Correction is under way and so far found support at previous barrier at 1333, with further easing required to hold above 1324, previous highs and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1311/1344 upleg.

Res: 1338; 1344; 1350; 1356
Sup: 1334; 1328; 1324; 1321