Daily Market Outlook: January 29, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro came under pressure and reversed to 1.1260, mid-point of 1.1096/1.1421 corrective rally, after upside attempts stalled at 1.1421, capped by falling daily 10SMA / Tenkan-Sen. Yesterday’s close in red, after Fed’s optimistic tone, could send the euro further down, as larger picture’s studies maintain strong bearish tone. Confirmation of lower top, seen on extension below 1.1220 hourly higher base / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, to re-focus 1.1096, 26 Jan low and open next target at psychological 1.1000 support. Only close above daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen, would delay bears and signal further corrective action.

Res: 1.1305; 1.1381; 1.1421; 1.1458
Sup: 1.1260; 1.1220; 1.1172; 1.1096




EUR/JPY

Near-term structure weakens after upside rejection at 134.30, following false break above daily Tenkan-sen line. Attempts above 134 handle were capped under descending daily 10SMA, currently at 134.55, with subsequent easing, probing below 132.48, 27 Jan trough. Prevailing negative tone on lower and strong bearish setup on larger timeframes, keeps the downside favored in the near-term, with close below 132 support required to confirm lower top and fresh attempts towards initial targets at 130.13, 26 Jan low and psychological 130 support. Alternative scenario requires close above daily 10SMA and former low of 16 Jan at 134.68, to improve and spark further recovery.

Res: 133.29; 133.82; 134.34; 134.68
Sup: 132.48; 132.00; 131.74; 131.13




GBP/USD


Cable returns to near-term range-trading, after repeated failure to complete reversal pattern on sustain break above 1.52 barrier, which was required to open key 1.5267 high and spark stronger recovery rally, on a break. Return below daily 20SMA weakens near-term structure and could trigger stronger pressure, in case of slide below daily 10 SMA at 1.5106 and daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.5085. Close below the latter to signal possible return to psychological 1.50 support and key low at 1.4950, posted on 23 Jan. The notion is confirmed by negative structure on daily / weekly chart.

Res: 1.5200; 1.5221; 1.5267; 1.5317
Sup: 1.5129; 1.5110; 1.5085; 1.5057



USD/JPY

The pair shows no significant changes and remains in near-term sideways mode, congested under daily 20 SMA and daily cloud top, with range base being established at 117.20. Neutral near-term studies are showing signs of weakening, following yesterday’s retest of strong 117.20 support and formation of daily 20/55SMA’s bear-cross. Break below range floor to confirm an end of near-term corrective phase and shift focus towards 115.83, 16 Jan low and key 115.55 support, low of 16 Dec 2014, as well as low of short-term consolidation phase, established between fresh high at 121.83 and 115.55. On the other side, fresh strength and eventual break above pivotal barrier at 118.85, is required to bring bulls back to play and shift focus towards barriers at120.00/80.

Res: 118.07; 118.25; 118.64; 118.85
Sup: 117.20; 116.90; 116.55; 116.05




AUD/USD

The pair accelerated lower after recovery rejection at 0.8023 failed to meet barrier at 0.8031, former low and fully retraced near-term 0.7856/0.8023 corrective rally. Near-term focus is shifted again towards the downside, with daily close below 0.7856, to confirm bearish resumption towards next target at 0.7700, July 2009 low. Corrective upticks should ideally hold below 0.7940, yesterday’s intraday low, with extended rallies to be capped under psychological 0.8000 barrier.

Res: 0.7900; 0.7940; 0.7995; 0.8023
Sup: 0.7852; 0.7800; 0.7750; 0.7700




AUD/NZD

The pair remains supported in the near-term, following yesterday’s rally and close above previous high at 1.0753. Fresh bulls are looking for resumption of near-term recovery from 1.0350 low, through psychological 1.08 barrier towards initial barriers at 1.0864/88, Dec 2014 lower platform / daily 200SMA. Ascending daily 10SMA, currently at 1.0659, underpins the action.

Res: 1.0765; 1.0800; 1.0864; 1.0888
Sup: 1.0731; 1.0700; 1.0652; 1.0620




XAU/USD

Near-term studies lost traction after recovery attempts stall on approach to psychological 1300 barrier. Subsequent pullback and yesterday’s bearish Inside Day candle, suggest further downside and possible retest of 1271, low of 27 Jan, loss of which to resume reversal from 1307, high of 22 Jan. Downside acceleration could extend to 1253, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1167/1307, where daily 20/200SMA’s golden cross is under formation. Larger picture bulls are in corrective mode and 1253 support should contain extended correction, before fresh attempt higher.

Res: 1285; 1292; 1298; 1307
Sup: 1277; 1275; 1271; 1266