Daily Market Outlook: Euro Remains Negative

EUR/USD

The euro remains negative and confirms the break below the pivotal 1.3670 higher low. Daily and weekly close in red and below the latter, confirms a double-top formation and bearish outlook in the near-term. Technicals are negative on all timeframes and that suggests further downside, with immediate support at the psychological 1.36 support, also the Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of the 1.3475/1.3992 ascent. A break here to open at 1.3561, the 12 Feb higher low and the 1.35 zone January lows, loss of which is expected to open the next breakpoint at 1.3475, the 03.February higher low and confirm the reversal of the larger uptrend from 1.2754, the March/May 2013 base. Consolidation above the 1.36 handle is expected to precede a fresh leg lower, with the session high at 1.3670 offering initial resistance ahead of the more significant 1.3670/85 level, the previous low of the 21/22 May lower top, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA, where stronger rallies would face solid resistance. Only a break above the 1.3730 lower platform, also the daily 100SMA, would sideline bears and allow for a stronger recovery.

Res: 1.3640; 1.3658; 1.3685; 1.3730
Sup: 1.3613; 1.3600; 1.3561; 1.3519





EUR/JPY

The pair remains in a near-term corrective phase off fresh lows at 138.13, posted on 21 May, as the larger picture remains weak and the descent approaches the next target at 138.00, the round figure support, reinforced by the 200SMA. Near-term price action is directionless and moves sideways below the 139 barrier with motion being confirmed by the double-Doji candle. Overall negative structure favors further downside, with a clear break below the 138 handle expected to open the way towards key support at 136.21, the 04 Feb higher low. However, extended daily studies may signal a prolonged consolidation or stronger correction, in case of a break above 139 barrier. The previous range floor and mid-point of the 136.21/143.78 ascent is also the daily Ichimoku cloud base and should ideally cap the rallies before a fresh push lower.

Res: 139.11; 139.40; 139.85; 140.00
Sup: 138.13; 138.00; 137.47; 137.00




GBP/USD

Cable trades in a corrective mode off 1.6811, last Friday’s fresh low, with the rally expected to ideally end at the 1.6850 zone, the Fibonacci 38.2% of the 1.6917/1.6811 descent / previous base and hourly 55SMA. Hourly Studies are negative, with 4-hour technicals losing traction, which supports the notion of a further extension of the near-term descent from 1.6919/17 - the double-top. A break below 1.6811, the 23 May fresh low and 1.6800, the Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6730/1.6917 ascend, is required to confirm and trigger a further retracement. Conversely, fresh bulls through the 1.6875 lower top, would improve and open the pivotal 1.6917 peak. On the other hand, the overall picture is bullish and current corrective action should stay above the 1.6730 higher low / daily 55SMA, to keep the structure intact.

Res: 1.6850; 1.6875; 1.6902; 1.6919
Sup: 1.6818; 1.6800; 1.6775; 1.6752



USD/JPY

The pair extended the near-term corrective rally from fresh low at 100.81 and cracked the psychological 102 barrier. This also marks above the 50% retracement of the 103.01/100.81 descent, with a clear break higher required to open the pivotal 102.35, 13 May peak. Positive near-term studies are supportive for a further ascent, as the immediate risk of a sustained break below the 101.20, multi-month range floor, is sidelined for now. Bullish momentum, building on a daily chart confirms however, that caution is required while the price holds below the 102.35 top. A break here is required to confirm the daily chart reversal pattern and expose the breakpoint at 103.00. Otherwise, 101.20/00 supports would remain at risk in the near-term.

Res: 102.04; 102.35; 102.49; 102.78
Sup: 101.76; 101.60; 101.34; 101.10



AUD/USD

The pair maintains a negative near-term tone, with near-term consolidation being under way above the key 0.9200 support. Overall, the picture is negative and looks for further weakness and a full retracement of the 0.9201/ 0.9407 ascend. Support at the 0.92 zone is seen as a breakpoint and in case of an extension lower, would signal an end of the larger consolidation under the fresh peak at 0.9265, the 10 April high, and would trigger a stronger correction of the larger 0.8658/ 0.9460 uptrend. Next supports lie at 0.9173, the 200SMA, ahead of 0.9154, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and 55/200SMA golden cross, with a break here required to confirm the bears are fully in play. The current consolidation should be ideally capped under the 0.93 barrier, the previous support and Fibonacci near 50% of the 0.9407/0.9215 descend, offering the first strong resistance, ahead of 0.9330, the Fibonacci 61.8% and previous range floor, where any stronger rally above the 0.93 barrier should be limited.

Res: 0.9248; 0.9272; 0.9283; 0.9300
Sup: 0.9207; 0.9200; 0.9172; 0.9154



AUD/NZD

The pair continues to trend higher on a corrective rally off the fresh low at 1.0743, with the psychological 1.08 barrier being cracked. Completion of the reversal pattern on a daily chart and 4-hour indicators moving into positive territory are supportive factors for further upside and an extension towards 1.0850 and the 1.0874 lower top, for an eventual push towards the key 1.09 resistance. Corrective action on overbought hourly technicals should be ideally contained at 1.0790, the Fibonacci 38.2% of the 1.0743/1.0824 ascent to maintain the positive near-term structure intact.

Res: 1.0824; 1.0832; 1.0850; 1.0874
Sup: 1.0805; 1.0790; 1.0774; 1.0759




XAU/USD

Spot gold remains in near-term sideways mode, trading within a narrowing range consolidation. Fresh attempts higher did not succeed thus far as the price holds below the psychological / 200 SMA 1300 barrier and the recent peak at 1308, posted on 14 May. The latter marks the first pivot, with a break here required to signal further recovery and open the next important barrier and range top at 1315, the peak of 05 May. Studies on lower timeframe charts are neutral and see no direction for now. A sustained break above the 1300 barrier is seen as an initial step for possible further upside, with a break higher required to confirm the scenario. Otherwise, holding below the 1300 handle would trigger further weakness. Loss of the 1285/83 recent lows would confirm the bearish resumption and open 1277/73 ahead of key support at 1268, the 24 April low.

Res: 1294; 1300; 1305; 1309
Sup: 1290; 1285; 1283; 1277