Daily Market Outlook: Euro Holding At 1.13

EUR/USD

The euro holds above 1.13 handle, keeping the range as dominant theme in the near-term, despite yesterday’s close in red and negative setup of near-term technicals. Narrowing 20d Bollinger bands support further consolidation. However, overall bearish tone continues to focus the downside and while the price holds below daily 20SMA, now offering initial resistance and currently at 1.1357, risk of attempts through 1.13 handle for attack at key 1.1260 support, will remain in play. Conversely break above daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen at 1.1357/63, would ease downside pressure and expose initial 1.1400, daily Kijun-sen, ahead of the first breakpoint at 1.1450 lower platform and key barrier at 1.1532, 03 Feb correction peak. Fed Chief Yellen’s testimony and Greek’s delayed submission of economic reform plans are expected to be main drivers of the markets from the fundamental side.

Res: 1.1357; 1.1400; 1.1428; 1.1450
Sup: 1.1320; 1.1277; 1.1260; 1.1220




EUR/JPY

The cross continues to trade in near-term consolidative phase, despite yesterday’s close in red, as daily 20SMA so far contains. However, tone of near-term studies is weak and keeps the downside vulnerable, with mixed daily technicals and contracting 20d Bollingers, suggesting further sideways trading. Initial support lies at 134.63, daily 20SMA, ahead of 134 handle and last Friday’s spike low at 133.53, loss of which to bring bears fully in play. On the upside, 135.90/136.22, mark pivotal highs, above which to expose key barrier at 136.68, 11 Feb recovery high.

Res: 135.60; 135.90; 136.22; 136.68
Sup: 135.00; 134.43; 133.92; 133.53




GBP/USD


Cable regained traction on yesterday’s bounce from 1.5330, where higher low was left, holding near pivotal barrier and fresh high at 1.5478. Yesterday’s bullish Outside Day supports fresh strength and eventual break above 1.5478, to open 1.5526, daily Ichimoku cloud top and resume bulls towards next pivotal barrier at 1.5618, 21 Dec 2014 high. Near-term technicals hold positive tone and along with bullish setup of the daily studies, keep the upside focused. Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5330/1.5473 rally, also former high of 20 Feb, at 1.5418, should ideally contain near-term consolidative phase, to keep immediate bulls intact. Otherwise, further easing through 1.5400/1.5385, 50% and 61.8% retracement respectively, is expected to delay bulls and expose pivotal higher base at 1.5330 zone, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line.

Res: 1.5478; 1.5500; 1.5526; 1.5585
Sup: 1.5428; 1.5418; 1.5385; 1.5330




USD/JPY

The pair remains entrenched between daily Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines and recovered the biggest part of yesterday’s losses on fresh strength above 119 handle. Near-term studies are regaining positive tone for possible repeated attack at pivotal 119.40 barrier and near-term congestion top, break of which to signal an end of consolidative phase and open targets at psychological 120.00 and key near-term top at 120.46, peak of 12 Feb. Also, daily studies are positively aligned and support the notion. Conversely, repeated rejection at 119.40 would signal prolonged sideways trading, while extension below initial supports at 118.70 zone, yesterday / today’s low, reinforced by Tenkan-sen line, would weaken the structure and risk return to the key support at 118.25, near-term range floor and Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46 upleg.

Res: 119.40; 119.60; 120.00; 120.46
Sup: 119.00; 118.70; 118.42; 118.25



AUD/USD

The pair loses traction in the near-term, after repeated attempt higher was capped at 0.7850, where strong resistance guards pivotal 0.7874 barrier. Near-term studies are weakening, as the price action attempts below daily 20SMA that increases risk of retesting pivotal 0.7756/40 lows and near-term consolidation floor. Close below here to confirm negative near-term stance, as overall bears remain in play and shift focus towards 3-week range lows and key supports at 0.7642/24. Otherwise, while initial 0.7756/40 supports hold, expect extended consolidation, with upside targets to remain in play.

Res: 0.7813; 0.7850; 0.7874; 0.7900
Sup: 0.7756; 0.7740; 0.7723; 0.7700




AUD/NZD


The pair enters near-term consolidative phase after repeated recovery rejection at 1.0425. Last week’s Hammer that signaled reversal, is still valid, as the price returned above 1.04 handle and near-term studies are regaining traction. Extension and close above 1.0425 is required to confirm near-term bullish stance for test of 1.0450, lower top of 13 Feb and 1.0486, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0792/1.0296 descend. Sustained break above 1.0486 and 1.05, daily cloud base, to confirm reversal and open way for further retracement. Lows of today/yesterday at 1.0350, mark strong support and breakpoint, loss of which to revive bears.

Res: 1.0426; 1.0450; 1.0486; 1.0500
Sup: 1.0400; 1.0380; 1.0350; 1.0327




XAU/USD

Spot Gold closed with Doji yesterday, signaling hesitation at key 1200 support zone, before eventual break lower and resumption of larger downtrend from 1307 high. The price closed above 1200 handle despite dip to 1190., where fresh low was posted. Bearish tone on daily studies is re-confirmed by bearish 10/100SMA’s cross, while neutral hourly studies suggest prolonged consolidation, before fresh attempts lower. Daily cloud base at 1206, offers initial resistance, with 1213, descending daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line, expected to cap upside attempts.

Res: 1206; 1213; 1216; 1222
Sup: 1197; 1190; 1186; 1177