Friday's Market Outlook:: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro extended corrective rally from 1.0530 higher low of 14 Apr, to crack key barrier at 1.08, daily 20SMA, on probe above hourly bull-channel upper boundary and extension to fresh high at 1.0816, yesterday. Today’s price action consolidates under 1.08 barrier, with positive tone persisting but contracting 20d Bollinger bands, suggesting further consolidation. Daily studies are gaining bullish tone, with break of pivotal 20SMA at 1.08 and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1034/1.0519 at 1.0837, required to confirm and resume recovery. Otherwise, prolonged consolidation could be likely scenario. Daily Kijun-sen contains today’s action at 1.0751 for now, with next pivotal support of daily 10SMA, laying at 1.0719. Break and close below here to soften near-term tone and signal further easing.

Res: 1.0785; 1.0800; 1.0816; 1.0837
Sup: 1.0751; 1.0719; 1.0683; 1.0639




EUR/JPY

Yesterday’s extension of recovery from 126.26 higher low, posted fresh high at 128.56, ending day in long green candle, after previous day’s Doji and confirming near-term base formation. However, the upside action was so far capped by descending daily 10SMA that guards pivotal barriers at 129.21/29, daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 131.28/126.08 downleg. Setup of near-term technicals remains positive, with widening 4-hour 20d Bollinger bands, suggesting fresh action. Lift above initial barrier of 10SMA is required to open more significant 20SMA / Fibonacci barrier, close above which to confirm recovery. Near-term consolidation should be ideally contained above 127.68, Fibonacci 38.2% of 126.26/128.56 upleg/ hourly lower Bollinger band, to keep positive structure intact. Break here, to signal further easing and sideline immediate attempts higher.

Res: 128.56; 128.76; 129.29; 130.00
Sup: 128.00; 127.68; 127.41; 127.14



GBP/USD

Cable remains supported and continues to move higher, extending corrective rally from 1.4563, on the fourth consecutive positive daily close, also in long green candles. Fresh extension above broken daily 20SMA that now underpins the rally at 1.4830, cracked the lower boundary of key resistance zone and breakpoint at 1.4970/1.5000. Bullish near-term studies and daily technicals gaining positive tone, support the price action for eventual break higher, to signal further recovery. However, hesitation on approach to pivotal barrier, cannot be ruled out, with consolidative phase, signaled by sideways moving hourly indicators and contracting hourly 20d Bollingers. Bull-trendline off 1.4600, offers good support at 1.4877, ahead of 1.4810, hourly higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4563/1.4968 upleg, where extended dips should ideally find support.

Res: 1.4968; 1.5000; 1.5050; 1.5100
Sup: 1.4877; 1.4810; 1.4766; 1.4718




USD/JPY

The pair remains under pressure, with near-term price action consolidating above 118.78, lows of past two days, where temporary footstep was found, just ahead of key 118.70/31 supports. Yesterday’s repeated close in red, maintains bearish tone, however, long shadows of daily candle suggest hesitation on approach to key supports. With bearish setup of near-term and daily studies, current consolidation is seen preceding eventual push towards 118.31, low of 26 Mar, to fully retrace 118.31/120.83 upleg and signal fresh extension of pullback from 122.01 peak. Initial resistance lies at 119.46, consolidation range top, ahead of 119.73, lower top of 15 Apr, where extended corrective attempts should be capped.

Res: 119.12; 119.46; 119.73; 120.10
Sup: 118.78; 118.70; 118.31; 118.00



AUD/USD

The pair maintains positive near-term tone, with yesterday’s acceleration fresh high at 0.7820 and daily close in long green candle and above 0.78 barrier, confirming near-term recovery phase. Formation of double-bottom at 0.7531/51 and extension above Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.7936/0.7531 downleg, signals further recovery and attack at pivotal barrier and short-term consolidation top at 0.7936, break of which to confirm base and trigger stronger recovery action. Consolidative phase off fresh high at 0.7820 was so far contained at 0.7768, keeping protected 0.7730/18 supports, higher low of recovery rally from 0.7553, posted yesterday and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7553/0.7820 upleg, ahead of pivotal 0.77 support, daily 20SMA, below which to soften near-term tone.

Res: 0.7820; 0.7841; 0.7882; 0.7911
Sup: 0.7768; 0.7730; 0.7718; 0.7700




AUD/NZD

The cross trades in near-term choppy mode, with upside attempts being so far limited at 1.0217, marginally higher high of previous consolidation top. Yesterday’s positive close was offset by close below cracked daily 20SMA that keeps near-term price action pressured. Near-term studies are in neutral mode overall and require break of either 1.0217 high or 1.0074, low of 15 Apr, to signal fresh near-term direction. Overall picture, however, remains bearish and sees current action as consolidation, ahead of renewed attack at the parity level and extension towards fresh historical lows.

Res: 1.0175; 1.0200; 1.0217; 1.0280
Sup: 1.0128; 1.0100; 1.0081; 1.0074



XAU/USD

Spot gold entered near-term neutral phase, following upside rejection at 1208 and subsequent dip to 1194, where daily Kijun-sen line offered support. Near-term price action regains 1200 handle after yesterday’s close in red and below here. The price action is established within 1194 and 1208 range, with break of either side, required to signal fresh direction, as near-term studies are in neutral mode. On the other side, daily price action remains underpinned by rising 20SMA, currently at 1197, with daily close above, required to keep near-term focus at the upper breakpoint. Conversely, loss of 1194 handle, to signal further easing and expose key near-ertm support at 1178, 31 Mar higher low.

Res: 1208; 1211; 1214; 1219
Sup: 1200; 1197; 1194; 1188