Tuesday's Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD

EUR/USD

The euro came under pressure and reversed to 1.0550 zone, after yesterday’s short-covering acceleration stalled at 1.0618, keeping intact pivotal 1.0635 hourly lower platform and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0905/1.0461 downleg. Near-term studies remain weak and see limited upside attempts for now, while larger timeframes technicals maintain firm bearish tone and keep the downside in focus, despite oversold daily studies. Overnight lows at 1.0550, reinforced by 4-hour cloud top, mark initial support, ahead of 1.0520, hourly trough and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.0461/1.0618 upleg. Break here and through psychological 1.05 handle to re-focus key near-term support at 1.0461, fresh 12-year low of 13 Mar and signal bearish resumption. Conversely, repeated attack at initial barriers at 1.0618/35, is required to shift near-term focus towards pivotal 1.0682, 12 Mar correction high and 1.0728, descending daily 10SMA, close above which to signal near-term base and open way for stronger correction.

Res: 1.0618; 1.0635; 1.0682; 1.0700
Sup: 1.0550; 1.0520; 1.0500; 1.0461




EUR/JPY

The pair remains in near-term corrective rally off fresh low at 126.89, with recovery high at 128.77, being cracked, after the price created hourly higher base at 128.10 zone, where fresh rally commenced. Hourly studies are positive and see scope for attempts at pivotal 129.05, 13 Mar lower top, break of which is required to signal extended corrective rally towards next breakpoint at 130.13, former low of 26 Jan, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line. Otherwise, expect prolonged consolidative phase, before fresh attempts lower, as daily studies remain bearish.

Res: 129.05; 129.50; 129.95; 130.13
Sup: 128.40; 128.10; 127.65; 127.30




GBP/USD


Cable stabilizes above 1.48 handle, after extended recovery rally from fresh low at 1.4697, reached 1.4851 high so far. Near-term tone is positive and sees scope for fresh attempts higher. Break above 1.4851/61, correction high / hourly cloud top, to confirm resumption of corrective rally towards breakpoint at 1.4900, hourly lower platform / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5025/1.4697, reinforced by 4-hour Kijun-sen line. Close above here is required to confirm near-term bottom and allow for further corrective action towards 1.4950, former low of 23 Jan and breakpoint at 1.5025, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5551/1.4697/ high of 12 Mar / low of 06 Mar. Extended rallies are expected to be ideally capped here, as overall structure remains bearish. Otherwise close above the latter to confirm reversal.

Res: 1.4861; 1.4900; 1.4950; 1.5000
Sup: 1.4810; 1.4768; 1.4746; 1.4697




USD/JPY


The pair remains in extended sideways mode, with near-term studies holding neutral tone and repeated Doji confirming indecision. Consolidation range tops at 121.65 and former high at 121.83, mark initial barriers. Overall tone, however, remains bullish and keeps the upside in focus, with consolidative phase being for now contained at strong 120.60 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of 118.29/122.01 upleg. Initial support lies at 121.12, 4-hour cloud top and the action being underpinned by ascending daily 10SMA at 121 and daily Tenkan-sen line at 120.80.
Break below 120.60 handle to signal stronger pullback and open former highs at 120.46/25, ahead of psychological 120 support, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 116.86/122.01 rally, loss of which to confirm reversal. Otherwise, close above initial barriers at 121.83/122.01, to signal resumption of larger uptrend towards 124.14, June 2007 high.

Res: 121.65; 121.83; 122.00; 122.50
Sup: 121.12; 121.00; 120.80; 120.60



AUD/USD

The pair entered neutral near-term mode, after building hourly base at 0.7609, with consolidation range being so far capped at 0.7678, yesterday’s high and descending daily 10SMA. Overall picture remains bearish and sees scope for fresh attempts at 0.7558 low, to resume larger downtrend on a break, as bearish setup of daily SMA’s and widening 20d Bollingers, support the notion. Alternatively, attempts above initial barrier at 0.7678, would open way for fresh attack at pivotal 0.7730, 12 Mar correction high and the mid-point of 0.7911/0.7558 downleg, above which to materialize daily RSI/MACD bullish divergence and open way for further correction.

Res: 0.7678; 0.7730; 0.7766; 0.7800
Sup: 0.7625; 0.7609; 0.7558; 0.7500




AUD/NZD

The cross remains under pressure and posted fresh low at 1.0322 overnight, after recovery rejection at 1.0450, triggered fresh acceleration lower. Bears dominate on all timeframes studies and see scope for eventual return to key 1.0279 support, low of 04 Mar, to mark full retracement of 1.0279/1.0526 corrective phase and open way towards new all-time lows. Daily 20SMA offers initial resistance at 1.0385, ahead of daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.04, with Friday’s lower top at 1.0450, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0526/1.0322 downleg, expected to limit extended corrective attempts.

Res: 1.0385; 1.0400; 1.0432; 1.0450
Sup: 1.0336; 1.0322; 1.0300; 1.0279




XAU/USD

Spot gold remains unchanged, compared to the previous sessions, trading in near-term consolidative mode off fresh low at 1147, with rallies being for now capped at 1166, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1197/1147 downleg. Hourly studies are neutral and signal extended consolidative phase, before fresh attempts lower, as daily/weekly studies are bearish. Break below consolidation floor at 1147 to resume bears and open 1142/37, 01 Dec 2014 low / Fibonacci 261.8% projection of the downleg from 1223, ahead of key med-term support at 1131, low of 07 Nov 2014. On the other side attempts above 1166, range high, reinforced by falling daily 10SMA, would delay and expose pivotal 1175 barrier, lower top of 09 Mar / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1223/1147 descend and daily Tenkan-sen line.

Res: 1161; 1166; 1170; 1175
Sup: 1150; 1147; 1142; 1137