Daily Market Outlook: March 13, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro bounced from fresh low at 1.0493 on profit taking, with the rally being capped by descending 4-hour EMA at 1.0682, keeping intact pivotal 1.07 barrier, 50% of 1.0905/1.0493, reinforced by 4-hour Kijun-sen line. Near-term studies remain weak and see limited upside attempts for now, while daily/weekly technicals hold firm bearish tone and indicators continue to point lower, despite oversold conditions. Repeated attempt through 1.05 support that was cracked yesterday, is expected to open initial targets at 1.0335, Jan 2003 low and 1.0206, July 2002 high, to pave way for eventual test of parity level. The pair is poised for another bearish weekly close that supports bearish scenario. Alternatively, near-term bears would be delayed for further corrective action, in case of daily close above 1.07 barrier. Regain of 1.0821/31 breakpoint zone, former low of 09 Mar and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.1378/1.0493 downleg, is required to neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 1.0638; 1.0682; 1.0700; 1.0747
Sup: 1.0554; 1.0493; 1.0450; 1.0400



EUR/JPY

The pair remains in a corrective rally off fresh low at 127.61, posted on attempts below 128 handle, with near-term corrective action being so far capped at 129 barrier, Fibonacci 61.8% of 129.94/127.61 downleg. Positively aligned hourly studies see scope for extended correction through 129 barrier, with pivotal 130.00/13 resistance zone, psychological barrier / former low of 26 Jan, expected to cap, as daily/weekly technicals remain firmly bearish and favor resumption of larger downmove from 149.76, Dec 2014 high, towards next targets at 124.94/123.31, low of June 2013 / high of Apr 2011, for further retracement of larger 94.10/149.76 rally. Only close above 130 breakpoint zone would delay bears for stronger corrective action.

Res: 129.05; 129.18; 129.40; 130.00
Sup: 128.34; 128.00; 127.61; 127.00




GBP/USD


Cable attempts again through 1.4848, where yesterday’s acceleration found temporary footstep, just ahead of key med-term supports at 1.4830/12, lows of 2013. Firm bearish tone dominates on all timeframes, with yesterday’s candle with long upper shadow, confirming strong selling pressure. Break through pivotal 1.4830/12 supports is expected to accelerate bears and open next targets at 1.4344/1.4230, lows of 2010. Near-term consolidation top at 1.4894, offers initial resistance, while only close above 1.5025/30 breakpoint zone, yesterday’s high / 09/10 Mar former base and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5135/1.4848, would sideline immediate bears.

Res: 1.4894; 1.4958; 1.5000; 1.5030
Sup: 1.4830; 1.4812; 1.4720; 1.4578




USD/JPY

The pair trades in prolonged consolidative phase above 121 handle, after yesterday’s spike lower was contained above pivotal 120.60 support and quick recovery followed. Positive tone prevails on near-term studies, while daily technicals remain firmly bullish, with widening 20d Bollinger bands, suggesting further upside action. Eventual break above fresh high at 122.01, to confirm bullish resumption. However, extended consolidation before fresh attempts higher is seen as likely near-term scenario. Only close below 120.60 breakpoint would sideline bulls.

Res: 121.65; 121.83; 122.00; 122.50
Sup: 121.23; 121.00; 120.84; 120.60



AUD/USD

Corrective rally from fresh low at 0.7558 is losing traction, as rallies towards pivotal 0.7740 resistance zone, former base and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.7843/0.7558 downleg, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, were capped by descending daily 10SMA. Subsequent easing increased pressure at the first breakpoint at 0.7664, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7558/0.7729 rally. Setup of daily studies remains bearish, despite yesterday’s strong rally and positive close, with the downside expected to remain vulnerable, while 0.7740 barrier is intact. Break here to signal fresh strength, while close above daily 20SMA at 0.7765, also near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 0.7911/0.7558 descend, is required to confirm reversal and shift focus towards key near-term barrier at 0.9111, 26 Feb high.

Res: 0.7716; 0.7740; 0.7776; 0.7800
Sup: 0.7664; 0.7643; 0.7624; 0.7600




AUD/NZD

The cross consolidates under 1.0432, after the price fell sharply from 1.0526 to 1.0352 and recovery trade commenced from the latter. Negative tone prevails on larger timeframes, while hourly neutral mode favors extended consolidation. Yesterday’s Doji with long lower shadow and daily close above Tenkan-sen line at 1.0400, confirms near-term indecision, as daily indicators are at the breakpoints. Fresh weakness below 1.0352 low, is required to shift focus lower, while lift above initial barrier at 1.0432 and 1.0460, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0526/1.0325 descend, would re-open pivotal near-term barrier at 1.0526 for retest.

Res: 1.0432; 1.0460; 1.0500; 1.0526
Sup: 1.0400; 1.0368; 1.0352; 1.0300



XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in near-term consolidative mode off fresh low at 1147, with rallies being for now capped at 1166, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1197/1147 downleg. Neutral hourly tone suggests extended consolidative phase, before fresh attempts lower, as daily/weekly studies maintain strong bearish tone and yesterday’s quick erase of recovery rallies, signals limited upside for now. Fresh weakness through 1147 low to open 1142/37, 01 Dec 2014 low / Fibonacci 261.8% projection of the downleg from 1223, ahead of key med-term support at 1131, low of 07 Nov 2014. Conversely, break above 1166 high, would delay and expose pivotal 1175 barrier, lower top of 09 Mar and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1223/1147 descend.

Res: 1161; 1166; 1170; 1175
Sup: 1152; 1147; 1142; 1137