Wednesday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro remains at the back foot in the near-term, with yesterday’s close in long red candle, confirming negative stance. Dips found temporary support at psychological 1.08 level, having cracked bull-trendline off 1.0461 low, currently at 1.0820, but being contained for now by daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0796. Today’s price action was so far capped by daily 10SMA at 1.0852, ahead of next pivotal barrier at 1.0883, yesterday’s intraday high and lower top and former base at 1.0910 zone, also 50% of entire fall from 1.1034 to 1.0803, where extended rallies should be ideally capped. Negative near-term structure favors further weakness, with firm break below strong 1.08 support zone, to expose key near-term support at 1.0711, 31 Mar higher low. Break here to confirm double-top and accelerate bears. Alternative scenario requires extension above 1.0915 and violation of 1.0953, yesterday’s high/ lower top, also near Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1034/1.0803 downleg, to confirm reversal.

Res: 1.0852; 1.0915; 1.0953, 1.0964
Sup: 1.0800; 1.0750; 1.0711; 1.0686




EUR/JPY

Near-term structure is weakening, as the cross extends easing from fresh high at 131.28, where recovery rally towards pivotal 131.50 barrier, ran out of steam. Further consolidation is seen as likely scenario before final push at key 131.50/68 peaks, with break here to signal an end of near-term range trading and confirm resumption of recovery from 126.89, low of 13 Mar. Yesterday’s repeated close in red, gives negative signal, however, dips should be contained by reversing daily 20SMA, currently at 129.64, to keep alive hopes of fresh attempts higher. Otherwise, further easing and attempts at near-term range floor at 128.39, would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 130.40; 130.78; 131.03; 131.28
Sup: 129.88; 129.64; 129.40; 129.07


GBP/USD

Cable closed in red for the second consecutive day, holding soft near-term tone and seeing risk of further easing. Descend from upside rejection at 1.4979 was so far contained by bull-trendline, drawn off 1.4633 low, at 1.4800 zone. Consolidative action is expected to precede fresh weakness, with daily 20SMA at 1.4842, being tested so far. Extended rallies should be ideally capped under lower top at 1.4915, also near Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.4979/1.4798 downleg, to maintain negative near-term tone, with sustained break below 1.48 handle, to expose higher base at 1.4737 and possibly open way for return to key short term support at 1.4633, low of 18.Mar, on extended weakness. Only clear break above 1.4915 would neutralize downside threats and shift near-term focus towards pivotal 1.50 resistance zone.

Res: 1.4867; 1.4889; 1.4915; 1.4942
Sup: 1.4826; 1.4798; 1.4737; 1.4700




USD/JPY

The pair reversed quickly from yesterday’s fresh high at 120.43, after cracking pivotal 120.35 barrier and previous high, with yesterday’s close below the latter, suggesting that bulls require further consolidation, before final break higher. Near-term technicals remain positive, with current pullback’s low at 119.68, just under Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 118.70/120.43 upleg, seen as ideal reversal point. Daily indicators are in neutral mode, while setup of MA’s is bullish that supports fresh attempts higher. Sustained break above 120 barrier and daily close above yesterday’s fresh high, is required to confirm rally. However, prolonged consolidation cannot be ruled out. Only close below yesterday’s low at 119.33, reinforced by daily 55SMA, would soften near-term tone and confirm false break higher.

Res: 120.00; 120.35; 120.43; 120.80
Sup: 119.68; 119.33; 119.16; 118.90



AUD/USD

The pair holds positive near-term tone, however, upside attempts remain capped for now by daily 20SMA, currently at 0.7694. Yesterday’s positive close was diminished by strong sell-off that left daily candle with long upper shadow, signaling hesitation at pivotal 0.77 resistance zone. Sustained break above daily 20SMA is required to resume recovery action from fresh low at 0.7531, towards next barriers at 0.7734, daily Kijun-sen / 50% of 0.7936/0.7531 downleg and 0.7782, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, with close above here to confirm reversal. However, larger picture remains bearish and current attempts higher are seen as corrective actions, preceding fresh push lower. Only break above key 0.7936 peak, posted on 24 Mar, would confirm near-term base and signal stronger recovery.

Res: 0.7694; 0.7709; 0.7734; 0.7782
Sup: 0.7626; 0.7593; 0.7575; 0.7531




AUD/NZD

The cross extended recovery rally from fresh low at 1.0016, with yesterday’s close in long green candle, signaling reversal, after Morning Star reversal pattern was formed. Bounce higher cracked psychological 1.02 barrier and so far tested 1.0214, double- Fibonacci barrier. Sustained break here to open next pivotal barrier at 1.0252, descending daily 20SMA / lower top of 01 Apr, close above which, to confirm reversal. Otherwise, lower top formation under 1.0255, is expected to precede fresh weakness, as overall picture remains bearish and sees scope for push towards parity level in the short-term.

Res: 1.0190; 1.0214; 1.0255; 1.0273
Sup: 1.0159; 1.0143; 1.0093; 1.0080



XAU/USD

Spot gold enters near-term consolidative phase, holding within narrow range and above fresh lows at 1207, where near-term base is forming. Near-term studies are mixed and suggest further consolidation, which is required to hold above psychological 1200 support, reinforced by ascending daily 10SMA, before fresh push higher. Bullish setup on daily timeframe studies, supports the notion of renewed attacks at fresh high at 1224, also daily cloud base and resumption of recovery rally from 1142, towards next pivotal targets at 1234/37, daily 200SMA / daily Ichimoku cloud top. Only close below 1200 handle would neutralize upside attempts and open way for stronger correction.

Res: 1214; 1216; 1219; 1224
Sup: 1207; 1200; 1194; 1190