Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD

EUR/USD

The euro probed below 1.10 support for the first time since Sep 2003, after ECB revealed details of bond-buying programme. Strong bearish tone persists on all timeframes and sees scope for further decline, with near-term consolidating phase around 1.10 handle under way, on oversold near-term studies and ahead of US NFP data. Confirmation of dollar’s strength, on positive data release, would be the next trigger for Euro’s further easing. The pair is poised for another weekly close in red, with close below 1.10 handle to confirm bearish resumption. Initial targets lay at 1.0929/17, Fibonacci 138.2% projection of the downleg from 1.0532 / Oct 1999 high, ahead of 1.0826, Fibonacci 161.8% projection, with 1.0762, Sep 2003 trough, expected to come in focus. Widening 20d Bollinger bands confirm fresh action. Alternative scenario requires acceleration through minimum 1.1112/36, yesterday’s high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1378/1.0986 downleg, to sideline immediate downside risk and signal further correction.

Res: 1.1078; 1.1112; 1.1155; 1.1182
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0986; 1.0929; 1.0917




EUR/JPY

The pair remains in near-term downtrend from 136.68, despite yesterday’s Doji, as candle’s long upper shadow and probe below linear regression channel’s lower boundary, confirm bearish stance. Close below Fibonacci 61.8% of 130.13/136.68 rally, confirms an end of short-term corrective phase and focuses next target at 131.68, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 130.13/136.68 rally, loss of which to open way towards key short-term support at 130.13, low of 26 Jan. Corrective rallies should be ideally limited under 133.74, descending daily 10SMA, while only close above daily 20SMA, currently at 134.55, would neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 132.72; 133.57; 133.85; 134.55
Sup: 132.09; 131.68; 131.13; 130.90




GBP/USD


Cable remains under pressure, with yesterday’s acceleration lower approaching pivotal 1.5200/1.5180 support zone, psychological support / daily cloud base / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.4950/1.5551 ascend / 20d lower Bollinger band. Daily Kijun-sen line now acts as initial resistance at 1.5269, where yesterday’s rallies were capped. Technicals maintain bearish tone, with clear break below 1.52 handle, expected to trigger strong acceleration lower, as the pair is poised for daily / weekly negative close. Conversely, bounce through 1.5269 barrier, would ease immediate bearish pressure and expose pivotal 1.5350 barrier, sideways-moving daily 20SMA and near Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5551/1.5213 downleg.

Res: 1.5269; 1.5300; 1.5350; 1.5400
Sup: 1.5213; 1.5180; 1.5137; 1.5091





USD/JPY

Yesterday’s fresh rally posted marginally higher high at 120.38, with daily close above 120 handle, confirming positive near-term sentiment, re-established on a bounce from 119.40 higher base. Also, larger picture’s bullish setup of indicators and widening 20d Bollinger bands, suggest further upside and eventual break above pivotal 120.46 barrier. Positive release of US data could spark fresh acceleration higher for test of key 121.83 barrier, high of 08 Dec 2014. Ascending daily 10SMA/Tenkan-sen line, underpin the action at 119.50, along with ascending daily 20SMA at 119.30, reinforcing near-term higher base and marking breakpoint at 119.50/30 support zone.

Res: 120.32; 120.46; 120.80; 121.83
Sup: 119.90; 119.61; 119.40; 119.00



AUD/USD

The pair trades in choppy near-term mode, entrenched within consolidative range, after upside rejection at 0.7858 and yesterday’s fresh easing near range base confirmed strong support at 0.7740. The price continues to hover around daily 20SMA at 0.7794, as bounce from yesterday’s low averts immediate risk of violation of 0.7740 breakpoint. Neutral near-term tone persists ahead of US NFP data, with break of either boundary of the range, required to establish fresh near-term direction.

Res: 0.7812; 0.7840; 0.7858; 0.7911
Sup: 0.7772; 0.7752; 0.7738; 0.7700




AUD/NZD

The cross extends recovery rally from fresh low at 1.0279, with today’s acceleration above daily 20SMA, confirming near-term positive sentiment. The price eyes pivotal barrier at 1.0475, lower tops of 24/25 Feb and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0792/1.0279 descend. Close above here is required to confirm a pause in the downtrend and sideline attempts towards fresh historical lows, in favor of stronger correction. The pair is poised for positive weekly close, which would support scenario of extended corrective phase.

Res: 1.0475; 1.0500; 1.0535; 1.0596
Sup: 1.0400; 1.0380; 1.0350; 1.0307




XAU/USD

Near-term tone remains negatively aligned, as yesterday’s close in red candle with long upper shadow, confirming strong selling pressure and limited upside attempts. Descending daily 20SMA maintains larger downtrend and stays intact for now, with repeated attempts below psychological 1200 support, resulting in yesterday’s close below the handle. This confirms bearish near-term stance, with break below 1195, low of 03 Mar, to open pivotal 1190 base for retest. Further acceleration lower would focus 1170/67, lows of 22 Dec 2014 and 02 Jan 2015. Conversely, rally and close above daily 20SMA, to sideline immediate downside risk, while break above 1223 lower top, is required to confirm near-term basing attempt.

Res: 1203; 1209; 1211; 1215
Sup: 1195; 1190; 1186; 1170