Ahead of the FOMC, we were expecting the focus to center on the likes of USD/JPY first and foremost, with EUR/USD also in the mix, but it was GBP coming under fresh selling pressure as specs eyed key levels on the downside against its major counterparts. Leading the way was another EUR/GBP charge higher, moving in conjunction with cross rate gains elsewhere. Factors behind the move were a combination of the impact of the EU negotiations on UK banks and expectations of an ECB on hold through to the end of 2016.
EUR/CAD was the other notable buy in the mix, with a large fixing order said to have led to gains here. USD/CAD was pushed back onto a 1.3200 handle again, and into the London close, the spot rate continues to threaten the key top at 1.3250.
Cable was also under some severe pressure, eventually taking out buy orders at 1.3000 to test down to just shy of 1.2950, which continues to hold but looks set to be tested into the North American session. There has been little reprieve for the pound through the day, but with the spot rate at key levels, we expect some sort of moderation into the Fed conclusion tomorrow night.
Elsewhere, WMP futures were pricing in an 11% rise in today’s Fonterra’s dairy action, but at -0.2%, the disappointment was reflected through AUD/NZD as the cross rate reclaimed the 1.0300 handle. NZD/USD is still trading .7300+, having topped out just ahead of .7360.
As for USD/JPY, a late dip into the lower end of the 101.50-102.5 range suggests some pre-emptive flow, but 101.20-40 should support into the meeting. EUR/USD has been resilient throughout, but buyers ahead of 1.1170 encouraged by larger demand seen in the 1.1120-30 area.
Looking to tomorrow, many anticipate a signal for a Dec move at the Fed at the very least, with some outside calls for a 25bp hike tomorrow. The BoJ in the meantime may add to easing measures in one form or other, but JPY flow suggests disappointment is expected.