A very choppy session in FX, though this is usually the case on a Monday – month-end flow causing minor fluctuations.
The key theme from Asia was the sell-off in USD/JPY, but we managed to hold the session lows despite some soft 2nd tier data in the US, with the USD on the front foot against the EUR again as the single unit continues to suffer ahead of the March ECB meeting.
Losses against the AUD were notable after the PBoC cut the RRR by 0.5%, the announcement coming out at the same time as the EU CPI numbers, which were weaker than expected at 0.7% core vs 1.0% median forecast. This has naturally heightened expectations for next week, with EUR/USD pressed through to the mid 1.0800’s after an early struggle with 1.0900. EUR/AUD was 1.5300 at the time and took a dive to just shy of 1.5200 in the aftermath.
More losses for cable as multi-year lows were stretched down to just under 1.3835, but we have seen some decent buying interest emerging since, with the market keen to return above 1.3900 again with the help of pressure on EUR/GBP. Support ahead of 1.3500 was suspected to have been exotic related, and talk was that of an RKI at the figure level. This was later tripped, but after extending down to 1.3480 with the help of higher oil, we were quickly back above 1.3500 again.