Currency Speculators Raise USD Bullish Bets For Second Week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators raised their US dollar bullish bets last week for a second straight week to a new highest level since June 2013.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $32.92 billion as of Tuesday August 26th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$2.52 billion from the $30.4 billion total long position that was registered on August 19th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar bullish position has risen for two straight weeks and for five out of the last six weeks. The advance in the US dollar bullish position marks a new highest level since June 4th 2013 when speculators were long by $39.12 billion.

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall dollar contracts slid a bit last week to +155,008 contracts as of Tuesday August 26th. This was a change by -4,999 contracts from the total of +160,007 contracts as of Tuesday August 19th. The total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro,  Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

• Euro positions saw renewed bearishness last week and fell for the sixth time out of the last seven weeks. The spec positions are now at the lowest level since July 24 2012 when positions equaled -155,066 contracts

• British pound sterling positions rose slightly after falling the previous week.

• Japanese yen bets declined sharply last week (-15,620) to fall for a second week. Yen bets have declined four out of the last five weeks and to the lowest level since January
  

• Swiss franc bets edged higher for a third straight week although remain bearish. Franc positions have been on the bearish side now for ten straight weeks

• Canadian dollar positions fell for a fourth straight week and as positions dropped to the lowest position since July 1st

• Australian dollar net positions advanced last week for a second week. Aussie long positions are now over the +40,000 contracts threshold and at the highest bullish level since April 2013

• New Zealand dollar net positions continued to decline last week for a fourth straight week as net positions fell to the lowest level since July 1st

• Mexican peso positions gained sharply last week to rise for a second week after falling into bearish territory on August 12th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Disclaimer: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.