Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:
Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:
- In Asia 8 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -0.54%, Hang Seng -0.36%, Nikkei -0.99%
- In Europe 9 out of 13 markets are trading lower: CAC -0.02%, DAX -0.03%, FTSE +0.27%
- Fair Value: S&P +4.64, NASDAQ +26.83, Dow +14.11
- Total Volume: 1.30mil ESZ & 433 SPZ traded in the pit
Today’s Economic Calendar:
Today’s economic calendar includes the Weekly Bill Settlement, Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET, GDP 8:30 AM ET, International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET, Retail Inventories 8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories 8:30 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET, Robert Kaplan Speaks 2:00 PM ET, Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET, Jerome Powell Speaks 4:30 PM ET, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM ET.
S&P 500 Futures: Fed Jacks Rates For Third Time in 2018, More Hikes To Come
The S&P 500 futures have been under selling pressure as the US / China trade wars heat up. After making four separate lows around the 2928.00 area over the last few sessions, the ES has made six separate pushes to the upside, but all have failed.
During Tuesday nights Globex session the ES traded down to 2921.50, traded 2922.25 on the 8:30 CT futures open, and then traded up to 2926.50. After that, the futures sold off down to 2920.25, then rallied up to 2930.00 just before the fed’s rate decision. Total volume at 12:56 was shockingly low, only 515,000 futures contracts had traded.
Just before the rate hike the ES was trading at the 2927.50 area. From there, it popped up to 2933.50, pulled back a few handles, then shot up to 2936.00. After the ‘pop’ the ES sold back off down to 2924.00, and then rallied up to 2929.75 at 2:26 CT before selling off down to 2920.75 as the MiM went to $1.7 billion to sell. The futures again sold off down to 2907.50 just after the final MiM came out showing $3.1 billion to sell MOC, and then bounced up to the 2912.50 level before printing 2912.00 on the 3:00 cash close, and settling the day at 2911.75, down -9.50 handles, or -0.33%.
In the end, the tone was about one of the rules that I often expound upon, which is to fade the first reaction. Yesterday we had the stats out in the room that 5 of the 6 Fed meetings since Powell became chair have closed lower, and that in the current cycle on FOMC days when rates are hiked, we usually see new lows on the close, and when Powell took the podium yesterday it was all over for the S&P’s.
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