Cable Resume Recovery Rally After Consolidation Below 1.6125

EUR/USD

The euro probes above 1.28 barrier, on a fresh strength, off yesterday’s low at 1.2730. Near-term price action continues to trade in choppy consolidation, entrenched within 1.2700/1.2840 range. Positively aligned near-term studies and yesterday’s positive close keep fresh upside attempts towards the range tops in play, as price action is supported by rising 100SMA and daily Kijun-sen line. However, overall picture remains negative and unless the price extends above range ceiling and 1.29 barrier, seen as initial barriers and trigger for attempts towards 1.30 breakpoint, expect prolonged consolidation, with downside at risk, in the near-term.

Res: 1.2843; 1.2884; 1.2900; 1.2930
Sup: 1.2787; 1.2750; 1.2730; 1.2700




EUR/JPY

Extended recovery phase off 16 Oct fresh low at 134.12, probed above 136.83, 38.2% retracement of 141.20/134.12 descend and touched psychological 137 resistance. Subsequent consolidation holds above 136 handle, which sees scope for fresh attack at 137 barrier as near-term studies are positive. Extension above here cannot be ruled out, however, overall negative tone and double bear-cross of 20/55 and 20/100 SMA’s, maintains pressure and keeps risk of early upside rejection and lower top formation. Loss of 136, round-figure support and 135.90, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 134.12/137 ascend, to increase downside risk. Conversely, sustained break above 137 barrier, would keep near-term bulls in play for attempt at 137.90 lower platform and breakpoint, reinforced by descending 100SMA.

Res: 137.00; 137.53; 137.67; 137.92
Sup: 136.20; 136.00; 135.90; 136.75




GBP/USD

Cable resumed recovery rally after consolidation below 1.6125 and heads towards psychological 1.62 barrier, also daily Kijun-sen line and key near-term resistance at 1.6225, 09 Oct lower top. Near-term studies are bullish and support further upside, with yesterday’s positive close and break above daily 20SMA, improving daily studies, which are negative and require clearance of 1.6225 breakpoint for improvement. Corrective actions should be ideally contained at 1.6065 higher base, 38.2% retracement of rally from 1.5873, reinforced by 20/55SMA’s bull cross.

Res: 1.6200; 1.6225; 1.6250; 1.6285
Sup: 1.6150; 1.6125; 1.6100; 1.6078




USD/JPY

The pair came under pressure after failing to regain pivotal 107.50 barrier and subsequent two-legged pullback so far reached 106.24, over 50% retracement of 105.18/107.38 upleg. Weakened near-term studies see risk of further easing, as daily bears are coming back to play and Evening Star pattern is forming on a daily chart. Completion of the pattern, which requires close at/ below 106, psychological support, reinforced by ascending daily 55SMA, also to confirm lower top formation and risk return to key near-term support at 105.18. Alternative scenario requires reversal above 106 handle and regain of 107.38/50 breakpoints, to neutralize downside risk.

Res: 106.76; 107.00; 107.38; 107.50
Sup: 106.24; 106.11; 106.00; 105.50



AUD/USD

Near-term price action broke above initial barrier and narrowed range tops at psychological 0.80 resistance, however, price continues to trade within larger 0.8641/0.8900 range, with 4-hour chart showing no significant changes, compared to the previous sessions. Near-term studies are positively aligned, which keeps the upside targets in near-term focus. The notion is supported by positive daily close and break above 20SMA. On the other side, negative larger picture’s studies see risk of fresh push lower, once short-term consolidative phase is completed. Only sustained break above 0.89 barrier would sideline bears and signal stronger corrective action.

Res: 0.8826; 0.8836; 0.8858; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8800; 0.8756; 0.8731; 0.8700



AUD/NZD

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase above psychological 1.1000 support, with price action being capped under the mid-point of 1.1146/1.0979 downleg. Negative tone prevails on near-term studies and sees scope for eventual full retracement of 1.0915/1.1279 upleg, with break lower to signal an end of short-term consolidative phase and double-top formation. Yesterday’s close in red, maintains negative tone. Initial supports at psychological 1.10 level, was cracked, break o which to open 1.0973/56, daily 100SMA / 50% retracement of larger 1.0619/1.1293 ascend and key support and breakpoint at 1.0915, 22 Sep low. Daily indicators are establishing in the negative territory, which supports the negative outlook. Only break above pivotal 1.1100/50 resistance zone, daily 55 and 20SMA / 15 Oct lower top, would sideline bears and signal prolonged sideways trade.

Res: 1.1047; 1.1061; 1.1084; 1.1100
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0983; 1.0973; 1.0956




XAU/USD

Spot Gold’s near-term price action remains supported, as 1249/1230 corrective pullback was completed and pivotal 1249 barrier dented, on a fresh strength from 1230 higher low, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1221/1249 upleg. Near-term studies are bullish and favor clear break above 1249 high, to open next targets at 1252/54, 50% retracement of 1322/1182 descend / daily 55 SMA, ahead of 1269, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Yesterday’s positive close supports the notion, as daily MACD is breaking above the midline and indicators are heading north.

Res: 1252; 1254; 1269; 1274
Sup: 1245; 1240; 1235; 1231