Cable Consolidates After Hitting Pivotal 1.6125 Barrier

EUR/USD

The euro remains in near-term sideways mode, trading within 1.2700/1.2840 consolidative range, after last week’s strong acceleration higher spiked at 1.2884. Friday’s attempts at range tops were unsuccessful, with subsequent quick pullback to the range’s lower zone, weakening hourly structure. On the other side, 4-hour studies maintain positive tone, with price action being supported by 55SMA for now. Larger picture studies are also mixed, as last Friday’s close in red, keeps the pair under pressure, while the second consecutive positive weekly close, although with limited upside power, according to long upper wicks of the candles, suggests lacks of momentum for final push higher. This would signal extended consolidative phase, with break of either side, required to establish fresh direction. Immediate supports lay at 1.2727/22, 4-hour 55SMA/Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2622/1.2884 and 1.2700, range floor and 16 Oct spike low, loss of which to weaken near-term structure for further correction of 1.2499/1.2884 ascend. Conversely, fresh strength above range top, to signal resumption of recovery rally from 1.2499, 03 Oct low, for attempt at pivotal 1.29/1.30 barriers.

Res: 1.2778; 1.2800; 1.2843; 1.2884
Sup: 1.2722; 1.2700; 1.2646; 1.2622




EUR/JPY

The trades in extended recovery phase off 16 Oct fresh low at 134.12, with price action holding stable above 136 handle and weekly opening with gap-higher, confirming positive near-term sentiment. Positive daily and weekly close support the idea of reversal, as bounce probed above Fibonacci 38.2% of 141.20/134.12 descend. Immediate resistance at 137 was tested so far, ahead of 137.53, daily 20/55SMA’s bear-cross, above which to open key near-term barrier at 137.92, lower platform of 03/09 Oct, reinforced by daily 20/100SMA’s bear cross. Corrective actions to see immediate support at previous high at 137.70, ahead of session low at 136.45, with extension below, to fill overnight’s gap and signal deeper pullback towards pivotal 136.00/135.90, hourly higher base / Fibonacci 38.2% of 134.12/137.00 upleg.

Res: 137.00; 137.53; 137.67; 137.92
Sup: 136.75; 136.45; 136.00; 135.90




GBP/USD

Cable consolidates after hitting pivotal 1.6125 barrier, lower top of 13 Oct, clear break of which is required to complete the first step of recovery action from 1.5875 low and open the breakpoint at 1.6225, 09 Oct lower top. Positive tone prevails on lower timeframes studies and supports further recovery action. On the other side, indecision is signaled on larger picture, as both daily and weekly closes, were in Doji candle, as daily action remains capped by descending 20SMA, while weekly 100SMA so far held upside attempts. Extended consolidative phase is seen likely in the near-term and unless the price rallies to key 1.6225 barrier, risk of ending near-term corrective phase, will remain in play. Initial supports lay at 1.6081 and 1.6057, while violation of pivotal higher low at 1.6030, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5875/1.6125 upleg, would sideline near-term bulls.

Res: 1.6111; 1.6125; 1.6142; 1.6200
Sup: 1.6081; 1.6057; 1.6030; 1.6000




USD/JPY

The pair remains steady in near-term trading, as acceleration of corrective rally off 105.18, 15 Oct low, stabilizes above 107 handle, following, weekly gap-higher opening. Completion of 107.50/105.18 phase, lower top of 15 Oct / 50% of 109.89/105.18 descend / daily 20SMA and sustained break higher, which also requires clearing daily Kijun-sen line at 107.63, is required to sideline bears and signal further recovery. Studies of 4-hour and daily chart are attempting at their midlines, with break higher to confirm bullish resumption. Alternatively, extension and close below 107 handle would be initial signal of lower top formation and fresh weakness.

Res: 107.38; 107.50; 107.63; 108.00
Sup: 107.00; 106.77; 106.56; 106.33



AUD/USD

The pair remains in near-term sideways mode, as price action continues to move within narrowed 0.8734/0.8810 price span, part of larger 0.8641/0.8896 consolidative range. Overall bearish tone remains in play and sees fresh extension of larger downtrend as preferred scenario, as the price action holds below descending daily 20SMA for now. Top of corrective range at 0.89, along with 38.2% of 0.9400/0.8641, marks strong barrier and breakpoint and only sustained break here would have more significant impact on short-term bears. Last Friday’s Doji, however, would signal prolonged consolidation, before the price establishes in fresh direction.

Res: 0.8786; 0.8810; 0.8836; 0.8858
Sup: 0.8746; 0.8731; 0.8700; 0.8684




AUD/NZD

The pair consolidates above psychological 1.1000 support, after last Friday’s spike higher was capped under 1.11 breakpoint. Negative tone prevails on near-term studies and sees scope for eventual full retracement of 1.0915/1.1279 upleg, with break lower to signal an end of short-term consolidative phase and double-top formation. On the other side, last Friday’s Outside Day close would signal stronger recovery, which requires sustained break above 1.11 barrier, to be confirmed. Initial supports lay at psychological 1.10 level, ahead of 1.0973/56, daily 100SMA / 50% retracement of larger 1.0619/1.1293 ascend and key support and breakpoint at 1.0915, 22 Sep low. Daily indicators are establishing in the negative territory, which supports the negative outlook. Only break above pivotal 1.1100/50 resistance zone, daily 55 and 20SMA / 15 Oct lower top, would sideline bears and signal prolonged sideways trade.

Res: 1.1061; 1.1084; 1.1100; 1.1150
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0973; 1.0956; 1.0915




XAU/USD

Spot Gold’s near-term price action remains supported, as corrective pullback from fresh high at 1249, was supports at 1230 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1221/1249 upleg, ahead of fresh rally. Near-term studies are positively aligned and favor fresh upside attempts, with break above 1249 high, to open next targets at 1252/54, 50% retracement of 1322/1182 descend / daily 55 SMA, ahead of 1269, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. On the other side, last Friday’s Doji candle may signal prolonged consolidation, ahead of fresh attempt higher. Sustained break and close above 1249 hurdle, to confirm, while loss of 1230 handle, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA, would sideline near-term bears, for stronger correction of 1182/1249 ascend.

Res: 1245; 1249; 1252; 1254
Sup: 1240; 1234; 1232; 1228