The Aussie has fallen sharply over the last couple of days down to a five month low below 0.92 after falling through the 0.93 level and testing the 0.9220 level. It showed some positive signs to finish out last week as it surged higher again bouncing off support below 0.93 and reaching a new four week high around 0.94 before falling sharply again. A couple of weeks ago it enjoyed a solid week moving up from below 0.9300 to a then three week high around 0.9370 before easing a little lower to finish the week. For the best part of the last month or so the Australian dollar has traded close and around the 0.93 level after spending the preceding few weeks drifting lower from near 0.95. A few weeks ago it fell lower to below the 0.93 level level and down towards a two month low near 0.9220, before rallying well to return to the 0.93 level. Throughout July it generally slid lower from close to 0.95 down to its present trading levels around 0.93. It has done well of late to cling onto the 0.93 level after its sharp fall which saw it move from above 0.9400 down to a seven week low below 0.9240. Several weeks ago it was easing back below both the 0.9425 and 0.9400 levels with the former providing some resistance.
The Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 at the end of July after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95. After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220. The 0.9220 level has repeatedly reinforced its significance as it is again likely to support price should the Australia dollar retreat further.
Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year. For the best part of February and March the Australian dollar did very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although at the beginning of March it crept a little lower down to a three week low below 0.89. Towards the end of March however, the Australian dollar surged higher strongly moving to the resistance level at 0.93 before consolidating for a week or so.
Australian consumer confidence has lifted - helped by continued low interest rates and rising housing prices. The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index rose 0.6 per cent in the first week of September. The index has stabilised around its long run average over the past four weeks after a sharp decline around the time of the federal budget in May. ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said rising confidence that households have in their family finances is showing continued momentum. "The recent stabilisation in confidence is a positive sign and ANZ's base case remains that consumer spending will grow moderately this year, before improving next year," he said. "The labour market will be important for the outlook, so it is encouraging that the August ANZ job ads report yesterday showed that labour demand is gradually strengthening." A measure of Australian business conditions pulled back from four-year highs in August as sales and profits eased, while booming conditions in the construction sector contrasted with gloom among miners. National Australia Bank's survey of more than 400 firms showed its index of business conditions halved to +4 in August, so unwinding much of July's 5 points gain.
AUD/USD September 9 at 23:55 GMT 0.9209 H: 0.9288 L: 0.9188
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.9220 | --- | --- | 0.9425 | 0.9500 | --- |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Wednesday, the AUD/USD is trading in a small trading range around 0.9200 after falling sharply from near 0.93 over the last 12 hours or so. T he Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents and it has done very well to recover slightly to near 0.95 again. Current range: trading right around 0.9200.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.9220.
• Above: 0.9425 and 0.9500.
OANDA's Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has surged higher above 60% as the Australian dollar has dropped sharply back through the 0.93 level back down towards 0.9200. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 00:30 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence (Sep)
- 12:30 CA Capacity Utilisation (Q2)
- 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories (Jul)
- WLD OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report