The commodity dollar now coming into the market’s cross hairs is, of course, the Aussie where a string of key releases are due in the coming hours. The data kicks off with retail sales, expected at 0.5% against a previous of 0.3%, along with the Trade Balance numbers where the forecast is for -3.06B against a previous of -2.75B. Later in the session we have the Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement, so plenty going on in the Asian session.
From a technical perspective, and looking at some hourly charts, the Aussie dollar has been attempting to rise as denoted by the currency strength indicator, and particularly against the New Zealand dollar, and it is also reflected on the 4-hour CSI where they have crossed. Whether the buying continues — given the news releases later — remains to be seen.
For the AUD/USD, Friday’s failure to take out the 0.7365 resistance has seen the pair move back through the volume point of control in the key 0.73 region before 0.7260 held firm earlier today. 0.7260 also managed to give AUD/USD a very minor spring higher to 0.7286 before Friday’s bearish sentiment once again took hold. However, given the upcoming data for the Aussie the key level for AUD/USD is 0.7233 – July’s low for the pair. Should this be taken out then expect to see bearish momentum accelerate for AUD/USD.