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AUS200: Targeting 5270 Below 5430

Published 04/16/2014, 01:24 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Current price action favours a continuation of the bearish leg following a 50% correction.

AUS 200 Daily
Early Asia trading has seen a mild bullish continuation following Wall Street gains overnight. However the lack of commitment to the buy side makes me wonder just how far this can retrace, as a retracement is more likely judging by the price action.

If you look at the 5506 high, the rapid sell-off from the Dark Cloud Cover reversal appears to be more of an impulsive wave, which would imply a further low. As we sold off down to 5537 the Weekly S1 Pivot and 50 day SMA came to the rescue and we saw a Tweezer Bottom formation, comprising of 2x bullish hammers. Whilst this has so far supported I am favouring this to be a relatively mild correction as the bullishness of recent gains doesn't quite match the bearishness of the preceding losses.

At time of writing we have just tested the 38.2% retracement, but as this is the only level of resistance I will allow for a 50% retracement as we also have the Weekly Pivot here which could provide a good resistance zone between 5420 and 5427. 

If bearish setups appear beneath this zone then I will favour a continuation of the bearish move down to 5270 where we see March '18th lows and Monthly S1 support.

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