The AUD was a useful currency in past years. A long run bull market for commodities brought strength to the AUD and a classic interest differential in USD/AUD brought traders a healthy profit.
However, the tide seems to have turned with reduced demand for commodities from China, a major trading partner and a generally depressed global commodities market.
Today the high impact employment change figures will be announced. The consensus is around a 7.5k increase, previously the figure stood at 21k. However, should figures disappoint, the AUD could turn out to be the worst performer of the first quarter of 2014.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD Daily Chart" title="AUD/USD Daily Chart" width="866" height="728">
The evident down trend will continue as the USD gathers strength on good economic data and recent pronouncements by F.O.M.C. voting officials, which will ease investor uncertainty.
If the employment figures disappoint then we could see the AUD dive past 0.88873 and head for the August, 2013 low of 0.88468. In the longer term look for resistance around the 0.892 area, where the last sideways movement occurred.
AUD/NZD
AUD/NZD Daily Chart" title="AUD/NZD Daily Chart" width="866" height="728">
Another clear down trend. The NZD is picking up strength, and will continue to, from increased demand for diary derivatives. The demand is driven, mostly, by China’s expanding middle-class and is not going to fizzle out any time soon. No matter what the figures this is a long trade, especially with talk of interest rate rises in New Zealand phased in from the present to 2016.
AUD/GBP
Yet another downward trend. Look for resistance at 0.5417 level if Australian data does not disappoint, however, if the worst occurs the AUD may break through that level and reach a resistance of 0.5411.
Strong sell signals are given by all indicators, though watch your stops because a better than expected result may boost the AUD in the short term. Stop of 0.543 may be useful in a short position.
AUD/GBP Daily Chart" title="AUD/GBP Daily Chart" width="866" height="728">
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AUD/GBP: Look For Resistance At 0.541 If Data Does Not Disappoint
Published 01/15/2014, 04:36 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
AUD/GBP: Look For Resistance At 0.541 If Data Does Not Disappoint
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