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UPDATE 2-Amlin sees Japan quake loss at up to 150 mln stg

Published 04/05/2011, 04:13 AM
Updated 04/05/2011, 04:16 AM

* Estimates Japan loss at 80-150 million sterling

* Sees 110 million sterling loss from Feb. New Zealand quake

* Losses in line with or below expectations - analysts

* Shares up 0.2 percent

(Adds analyst reaction, share price, detail, background)

By Myles Neligan

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - British insurer Amlin said its natural disaster losses in the first quarter could be as high as 275 million pounds ($444.5 million), including a hit of up to 150 million pounds from the Japanese earthquake.

Amlin, the biggest listed insurer operating in the Lloyd's of London market, on Tuesday provisionally estimated its Japanese quake loss at between 80 million and 150 million pounds, based on a total industry loss of $12 billion to $25 billion.

The quake that hit New Zealand in February could cost 110 million pounds, while flooding in Queensland the previous month will add another 15 million pounds, Amlin said.

Analysts said Amlin's Japan loss estimate was in line with or slightly below their expectations, and the company's shares were up 0.2 percent at 387 pence by 0750 GMT, outperforming the FTSE 250 share index, which was 0.1 percent lower.

The stock is still down 5.2 percent in the year to date, lagging an 8.3 percent rise in the European insurance sector.

"This appears to confirm our view that none of the quality players will be disproportionately affected by Japan," Espirito Santo analyst Joy Ferneyhough wrote in a note.

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"From Amlin's perspective, we therefore expect a sigh of relief from the market."

The March 11 quake, one of the most powerful ever to strike Japan, triggered a tsunami off the country's north-eastern coast and killed over 11,000 people, with thousands more missing.

The Japanese government has estimated the total economic impact at between $198 billion and $309 billion, although the insurance industry is expected to pick up only a fraction of this as most losses to households are covered by a state-backed reinsurance pool.

Amlin also said there were early signs that falling prices "will be arrested" in some parts of the insurance market as a result of the Japanese disaster.

Several analysts have said the quake is unlikely to reverse a three-year decline in global insurance and reinsurance prices, blamed on stiff competition between well-capitalised insurers, although brokers Guy Carpenter said last week there were signs of an upturn in the key U.S. reinsurance market.

The Japanese quake followed a string of disasters last year including earthquakes in Chile and floods in Australia which pushed up natural catastrophe losses for the industry to $43 billion, an increase of 60 percent, according to Swiss Re, the world's No. 2 reinsurer.

The upper end of Amlin's Japan loss estimate is comparable to the $200 million to $250 million hit flagged by Bermuda-based insurer ACE, but exceeds the potential $100 million impact disclosed last week by Lloyd's of London rival Hiscox.

The biggest loss estimates so far have come from reinsurance giants Munich Re and Swiss Re, who have provisionally estimated their losses at 1.5 billion euros ($2.13 billion) and $1.2 billion respectively. (Editing by Hans Peters) ($1=.6187 Pound) ($1=.7050 Euro)

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