- The dollar is off and yields declined after the release of Fed Open Market Committee meeting minutes that showed the panel expected to raise rates "soon," building expectations that a June hike is very much on the table.
- "Although the data on aggregate spending and inflation received over the intermeeting period were, on balance, weaker than participants expected, they generally saw the outlook for the economy and inflation as little changed and judged that a continued gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation remained appropriate," the minutes say.
- The labor market strengthened further in March, the minutes note, but GDP slowed likely due to "transitory" factors. Inflation measures were little changed. Smaller job gains reflected both a warmer-than-usual February and a winter storm in March, but Q1 employment was "solid." Personal expenditures rose only modestly and residential investment gained at a "brisk pace."
- In asset wind-down news, the FOMC envisions a semi-tapering system where it will put cap limits on rolloffs, where any amount repaid in excess of the caps will be reinvested. Those caps would be set low at first and then raised quarterly.
- The dollar is back to +0.04% against the yen and -0.03% against the Swiss franc. The euro is +0.04% against the dollar, pound -0.16%.
- Two-year futures are up just 0.03%; 10-years up 0.14%.
- Government bond ETFs: TBT, TLT, TIP, TMV, IEF, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, VTIP, ZROZ, RINF, MBB, VGLT, TLH, IEI, BKT, SCHP, BIL, TYO, UBT, IPE, UST, DLBS, PLW, DTYS, TLO, VGSH, VMBS, LTPZ, SHV, GNMA, VGIT, STPP, STPZ, TIPZ, GOVT, SCHO, STIP, FLAT, TBX, SCHR, FTT, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, EGF, VUSTX, DLBL, MBG, TYBS, SST, DTUS, TPS, TUZ, DTUL, TDTT, AGZ, DFVL, TIPX, TAPR, TBZ, TDTF, DFVS, USFR, TYNS, SIPE, TFLO, RISE, CLTL, FIBR, GBIL, HYDD, JPST
- Dollar ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
- Now read: US house prices rise 1.4% in Q1, 0.6% in March
Original article