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UPDATE 2-UK retail sales jump in April, Easter helped-CBI

Published 04/28/2009, 09:12 AM
Updated 04/28/2009, 09:33 AM
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* April retail sales balance highest since Jan. 2008

* Survey results skewed by timing of Easter

* Rising jobless, house price falls still hitting demand

(Adds detail, more comment)

By Fiona Shaikh and Sumeet Desai

LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - British retail sales unexpectedly jumped at their sharpest rate in more than a year in April but the figures may have been distorted by the timing of Easter, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The Confederation of British Industry's distributive trades survey balance rose to +3 in April from -44 in March. That was the first positive reading since March 2008 and the highest since January 2008.

It was also much higher than analysts' forecasts of -40 and the biggest one-month jump in the index on record. But the survey may been affected by Easter -- a big shopping weekend -- falling in April this year and in March in 2008.

"The good turnout by shoppers over this year's later Easter may well have influenced the April retail figures, and while they mark a respite, they should not be taken as an indication of a high street revival," said Andy Clarke, chairman of the CBI distributive survey panel and chief operating officer of Asda.

The CBI survey asks retailers how sales volumes in the month compared with a year ago. In April, more retailers reported a rise in volumes than a fall, giving a positive balance.

However, Easter spanned the weekend of April 10-13 this year, having fallen on March 21-24 in 2008, and as most stores remain open for the duration of the holiday that can result in a significant distortion in the year-on-year comparison.

"We suspect the huge difference between March and April is not telling the correct story," said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec. "

"When you're looking at base effects, the comparatives are hugely favourable in April compared with March."

Sterling rose and gilt futures briefly fell as the survey offered hope that the economy -- which shrank by 1.9 percent in the first quarter -- could be over the worst.

But analysts were wary of predicting an end to the gloom on the high street, noting that rising unemployment, plunging house prices and record low wages growth were likely to weigh on spending for a while yet.

FOOD FUELS RISE

Indeed, the CBI survey showed that only food and footwear retailers reported any growth in sales volumes in April compared with last year, while stores in the other eight sectors reported lower sales than a year ago.

And retailers' own results back the findings, which suggest that Britons have cut down spending to the bare essentials as the economic downturn bites.

Supermarket giant Tesco said its profits jumped 10 percent to top 3 billion pounds in the year to the end of February and its rival J. Sainsbury has also enjoyed a sales boost.

Clothing retailers such as Next and Marks and Spencer have suffered, however, as have stores such as B&Q and Carpetright, which have been hit hard by the slump in the housing market.

Still, official retail sales data have also surprised on the upside recently, with figures last week showing sales rose 0.3 percent in March, confounding forecasts for a 0.5 percent drop.

And while the CBI survey's forward-looking indicators suggested retailers predicted sales would resume their decline in May, the expectations balance stood at -15 -- its highest since July 2008, providing a glimmer of hope for the sector.

"These improvements might point to a genuine pick-up in high street activity, perhaps as the extra spending power freed up by the sharp fall in inflation offsets the negative effects of rising unemployment and falling house prices," said Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics.

"But we would hesitate before reaching that conclusion. Not only is the survey often quite volatile from month-to-month, but the general conditions facing consumers do not look consistent to us with solid spending growth." (Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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