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TOPWRAP 5-World leaders head for summit, euro zone in recession

Published 11/14/2008, 07:00 AM
Updated 11/14/2008, 07:02 AM
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* Euro zone in recession although France grows

* G20 leaders head to Washington for summit

* Europe stocks up, Asia markets rebound after U.S. rally

By Elizabeth Piper

LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - World leaders headed to Washington on Friday to try to find ways to tackle a global economic crisis that has plunged much of Europe into its first recession since the euro currency was formed.

The worst financial crisis in 80 years has weakened the world's major economies and official data showed the 15-nation euro zone economy had shrunk by 0.2 percent for the second quarter in a row.

"We think that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better," said Nick Kounis, an analyst at Fortis Bank.

"We will probably see further falls in output in the first few months of next year, before a gradual improvement later in the year, but we think that there will be no real recovery before 2010."

Analysts said they expected the European Central Bank to cut interest rates further to try to spur economic growth.

With Europe, as well as parts of Asia and North America, suffering, leaders of the G20 developed and emerging countries travel to Washington to try to find ways to ensure the crisis, started by a U.S. housing market crash, is not repeated.

But agreement among the G20, which represents 85 percent of the world's economy and two-thirds of its population, is unlikely over whether more regulation of markets can protect consumers, savers and companies from the fall-out.

Washington says there should be no return to greater state control of financial markets. Much of Europe says without more regulation, a repeat of the last year's turmoil is inevitable.

COORDINATED ACTION

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for more coordinated measures to spur economic growth, a policy area where there may be more consensus.

"By acting now we can stimulate growth in all our economies. The cost of inaction will be far greater than the cost of any action," he told reporters in New York late on Thursday.

European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso said he hoped to draw more emerging economies into global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, saying Europeans were ready to lower their representation to make more room for countries such as China.

"There is an openness to accommodate an increased role of the emerging economies," the International Herald Tribune quoted Barroso as saying.

Some in the West say they hope that countries with large reserves, notably in the Gulf, will help fund the IMF, which has offered loans to economies labouring under heavy debts.

Pakistan, where its reserves are barely enough to cover nine weeks of imports, said it expected the IMF and other lenders to provide billions of dollars in loans soon, and China to pitch in with $500 million to avert a balance of payments crisis.

Shaukat Tarin, the country's top economic adviser, told Reuters late on Thursday: "Hopefully it will be available in the next few weeks."

But rating agency Standard & Poor's cut its sovereign ratings on Pakistan further into "junk" territory, highlighting the country's difficulty in raising the money it needs to avoid a default on its debt obligations.

FRANCE BUCKS TREND

Before the euro zone reported it was in a recession, Germany, Europe's largest economy, Spain and Italy all said their economies shrank in the third quarter.

France escaped, reporting growth of 0.1 percent in the third quarter but analysts said it was a semantic debate.

"Whether we're in recession or not is only a technical debate," said Jean-Louis Mourier, economist at Aurel Leven.

"Both the surveys and indicators we've seen leave no doubt that in spite of this slight rebound the economy is on quite a bad trajectory."

Spanish third quarter gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent, its first contraction in 15 years. Italy's economy contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

MARKETS

Stock markets bounced after days of falls. Stocks in Asia were broadly higher after U.S. shares gained nearly 7 percent. Oil held onto gains after hitting a 22-month low on Thursday.

European shares jumped over 2 percent.

"You might have seen the initial euphoria, but nothing has really changed from yesterday. The negativity is still about," said Dominic Vaughan, senior dealer at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Companies, most notably banks, continued to suffer, with some scrambling to cut costs by axing jobs.

Royal Bank of Scotland was considering cutting 3,000 jobs at its investment banking arm, a person familiar with the matter said. Telecoms company BT said this week it would cut 10,000 jobs.

The world's largest municipal lender, Dexia, agreed the sale of its troubled U.S. bond insurance subsidiary and launched a cost-saving drive after a heavy loss.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan's third-largest bank, said its quarterly profit halved on ballooning bad-loan costs and losses on its stock portfolio, and it stuck to its full-year forecast for a fall of 61 percent. (Additional reporting bureaux worldwide; Editing by Mike Peacock)

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