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Russian rouble down vs basket, may lose exporter support

Published 07/29/2010, 05:18 AM
Updated 07/29/2010, 05:20 AM
EUR/RUB
-

* Rouble stable near 10-week high vs dollar

* Slightly down vs basket, euro

* Dealers note local demand for foreign currencies

MOSCOW, July 29 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble inched lower against a basket of currencies on Thursday but stayed within sight of 10-week peaks against the dollar thanks to strong oil prices and a rise in the euro, but it may now lose support as the month-end tax period is over.

By 0740 GMT, the rouble was down 3 kopecks at 34.36 against the euro-dollar basket , slowly heading away from July's peak of 34.23 after the end of a domestic tax period in which companies buy roubles to cover their payments.

"A rise in the basket may be attributed to a rise in the euro against the dollar. Some expectations of a firmer (basket) are emerging, and the demand for foreign currencies may increase as a new month closes in," said Sergei Romanchuk, chief dealer at Metallinvestbank.

The rouble is likely to lose support from Russian exporters who have been actively converting their dollar and euro revenues to meet local liabilities.

"The supply (of foreign currencies) is waning, while Russian importers and big local banks are buying (dollars and euros)," a dealer at a major Western bank in Moscow said.

Against the dollar, the rouble firmed 3 kopecks to 30.23 , staying within 6 kopecks of the 10-week high scaled on Tuesday. Versus the euro, it gave up 10 kopecks to 39.40 .

However, oil prices -- the key gauge for the rouble -- remained at strong levels above $76 per barrel [O/R], ensuring inflows into Russia's export-focused economy.

The rouble, which market players call a derivative of oil prices, has moved in a channel between 29 and 32 to the dollar for about a year as oil prices have held in a $65-$85 band.

Equity markets were also in the rouble's favour, with Russia's benchmark RTS <.IRTS> and MICEX <.MCX> indexes gaining 0.5-0.7 percent.

Dealers say investors are avoiding taking big positions in the summer-thinned market and prefer to take a wait-and-see stance ahead of August, which has a reputation for bringing political and financial shocks in Russia.

Events that have taken markets by surprise in August include Russia's sovereign default in 1998 and war with Georgia in 2008. (Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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