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FOREX-Euro stalls after bounce on Greece austerity deal

Published 06/24/2011, 02:02 AM
Updated 06/24/2011, 04:00 AM
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* Euro/dollar above previous day's low, euro/Swiss off record low

* Scope for more jitters as Greek parliament vote on austerity next week

* Euro faces Ichimoku resistance near $1.4286 and $1.4332

* Signs of dollar funding strains may support dollar

* Dollar index flirting with break of 2010 downward trendline (Updates prices)

By Masayuki Kitano

SINGAPORE, June 24 (Reuters) - The euro held steady against the dollar on Friday as a short-covering bounce stalled on lingering uncertainty about the fate of Greece's austerity plan, with signs of money market strains also seen as a potential downside risk for the single currency.

The euro bounced off the previous day's low following news that Greece had reached a deal with international lenders on an austerity plan that would bring it one step closer to securing much-needed financial aid.

But the euro later lost steam, with the single currency last standing at $1.4255 , little changed from late U.S. trading on Thursday, its earlier bounce having stalled just below resistance near $1.4286.

That coincides with the conversion line on the daily Ichimoku chart, a popular technical analysis tool, and the euro faces more resistance at the base line, which now lies near $1.4332.

"Part of the reason the euro's bounce was so fast (on Thursday) was probably because there was some position unwinding ahead of the weekend," says Tsutomu Soma, senior manager for Okasan Securities' foreign securities department in Tokyo.

"I think you would have to put a question mark on whether it can keep extending its bounce," Soma said.

Indeed, the Greek government's austerity plan, including deep spending cuts and more tax hikes, must still be passed by the Greek parliament at a vote next week.

"The potential for further uncertainty suggests that the euro could pull back as quickly as it has rallied on the first sign of trouble," said David Rodriguez, strategist at DailyFX.

Market players cited talk of euro offers around $1.4290/4310, which looked set to cap the currency for now.

"I find it really hard to buy the euro at this stage," said a trader at a Japanese bank in Tokyo.

"The market is of course worried about Greece, but because yields between bonds of other peripheral euro zone countries and German Bunds widened on Thursday, people were reminded about the serious risk of contagion," the trader added.

The yield spreads on 10-year Spanish government bonds over 10-year German government bonds widened on Thursday, as did the yield spread on 10-year Italian government bonds against comparable German bonds.

The euro held steady against the Swiss franc at 1.1954 , staying above a record low of 1.18470 struck on Thursday on trading platform EBS.

Recent signs of dollar funding strains may also weigh on the euro against the dollar, with investors watching to see whether European banks' dollar funding demand will increase in currency forwards and cross-currency basis swaps.

Dollar funding costs implied by euro/dollar one-year cross currency basis swaps as well as three-month euro/dollar forwards had both risen on Thursday , pointing to an increase in dollar funding demand through such instruments.

"If banks can borrow in interbank (money) markets even if they have to pay a premium, then that would be ok. If not, they may have to just buy dollars, although that would be something of a last resort," said Okasan Securities' Soma.

Such signs of increased dollar funding demand could lend support to the greenback in the currency market, right at a time when the dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, is flirting with a break of trendline resistance drawn off a peak reached in June 2010.

The dollar index last stood at 75.291 , hovering close to the trendline resistance that lay right around 75.64.

A rise above that resistance and the mid-June high of 76.015 could set the dollar index up for further gains, with the next major peak on charts coming in at 76.366. Above that, the 200-day moving average lies at 77.218.

Sterling, which slumped to a three-month lows around $1.5938 on Thursday, held steady on the day at $1.6015.

The pound came under selling pressure this week after minutes of the Bank of England's June meeting flagged prospects of another round of stimulus through quantitative easing (QE), or asset purchases.

The dollar held steady against the yen at 80.50 yen . A trader at a Japanese brokerage said strong bids were supporting the dollar at levels below 80.50 yen, while dollar offers were seen roughly around 80.80 yen to 81.00 yen. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua and Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in SYDNEY, and Antoni Slodkowski in Tokyo; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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