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FOREX-Debt deal supports euro but gains seen limited

Published 07/22/2011, 06:34 AM
Updated 07/22/2011, 06:36 AM

* Euro zone deal seen as bolder than expected

* Euro near 2-week high vs dollar, jumps vs Swiss franc

* Euro/dollar implied volatility lower as euro regains poise

* Focus shifts to U.S. debt ceiling talks

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, July 22 (Reuters) - The euro hovered near a two-week high against the dollar and rose against the safe-haven Swiss franc on Friday after euro zone leaders agreed a second rescue package for Greece and steps to stop the debt crisis spreading to other countries.

The package was more ambitious than anticipated earlier this week and propelled the euro to a two-week high of $1.4440 versus the dollar and as much as 1 percent higher against the Swiss franc.

Further euro gains were seen limited, however, with analysts highlighting risks to the deal's quick implementation and questions over whether it will ease concerns about long-term debt sustainability.

The euro faced resistance at the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud -- a key technical indicator -- around $1.4455, with traders reporting offers above that level. The euro was last at $1.4397, down 0.2 percent on the day after jumping nearly 1.5 percent on Thursday.

"The market rallied because euro zone leaders managed to agree on something, but there is still an awful lot of analysis going on into the deal they have come up with," said Maurice Pomery, managing director at Strategic Alpha, which advises banks and hedge funds on currencies.

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"The problem is the bailout is dealing with a liquidity crisis, not an insolvency crisis," he said.

Implied volatilities on euro/dollar options dropped as fears receded that disappointment over the summit could pummel the euro. One-month volatility fell below 12 percent from above 13 percent before the summit.

The single currency jumped as high as 1.1894 Swiss francs , according to EBS data, -- around 4.5 percent above the record low of 1.1365 francs hit at the start of the week -- as investors slashed long Swiss franc positions that had been built on fears euro zone leaders might not reach a comprehensive deal.

It later pared gains to trade at 1.1813 francs.

"The deal is positive. A debt/growth deal is the only solution for an insolvent country and that is what the EU has done, but political and implementation risks remain," said Lena Komileva, global head of G10 currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Euro zone leaders agreed on a bailout package that will make it easier for Greece to reduce debt more sustainably by easing terms of loans and by making Greek bond investors shoulder some of the burden.

Provisions were also made for limiting the damage if, as seems likely, credit rating agencies declare Greece to be in temporary default. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Euro zone debt crisis in graphics

http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

But analysts said risks of the Greek crisis spreading to other indebted euro zone countries would remain if Spanish and Italian funding costs fail to reverse a recent spike higher.

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"We could see some more euro/dollar upside in the near term ... Beyond the next few weeks, however, we suspect that the upside in euro/dollar could be difficult to sustain," said Valentin Marinov, currency strategist at Citi.

FOCUS SWITCHES TO U.S.

The euro could extend gains against the dollar if concerns grow about the limited progress made by U.S. lawmakers in budget talks ahead of an Aug 2 deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.

A break above $1.4455 could see the euro target $1.4520, a 61.8 percent retracement of its decline since May, and the July high around $1.4577.

The dollar index stood at 74.049, not far from Thursday's six-week low of 73.889, when it posted its biggest daily drop of the year having clearly broken below trendline support that had held since May.

The U.S. currency also slipped to a four-month trough of 78.22 yen , the lowest since joint G7 intervention in mid-March to curb yen strength, before recovering to 78.51 yen.

While efforts to craft a $3 trillion deficit-reduction deal gained traction on Thursday, the White House and Republicans have not broken their impasse over higher taxes, which are opposed by the Republicans, who control the lower house.

Although most market players expect some sort of deal by Aug 2 to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling and avoid default, some worry that failure to reach a major deficit reduction plan could lead to a credit downgrading.

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These concerns pushed the U.S. dollar to a 30-year low against the New Zealand dollar and kept it near a 3 1/2-year low against the Canadian dollar . (Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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