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Forex - Weekly outlook: October 5 - 9

Published 10/04/2015, 05:43 AM
Updated 10/04/2015, 04:43 PM
© Reuters. Dollar lower after U.S. jobs report disappoints

Investing.com - The dollar turned lower against the other major currencies on Friday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report for September dampened expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added just 142,000 jobs last month, well below expectations of the 203,000 expected by economists.

August’s reading was revised down to 135,000, from the initial reported figure of 173,000.

Average hourly earnings were flat month-on-month and the labor force participation rate fell to just 62.4%, down from 62.6% in August. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%, in line with forecasts.

The report underlined fears that a slowdown in global economic growth has spread to the U.S. economy and prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Federal Reserve to early 2016.

Higher U.S. interest rates would boost the dollar, making the currency more attractive to yield seeking investors.

The euro advanced following the weak jobs report, with EUR/USD up 0.14% to 1.1210 late Friday.

The euro’s gains were held in check after data earlier in the week showing that the euro area fell back into negative inflation in September added to fears that the European Central Bank will step up its quantitative easing program.

The dollar initially fell against the yen, with USD/JPY hitting lows of 118.69, before pulling back to 119.89 at the close as investors booked profits on the greenback’s fall.

The pound and the Swiss franc were higher, with GBP/USD up 0.35% to 1.5185 and USD/CHF off 0.59% at 97.15.

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The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last down 0.31% to 96.04 after falling to two-week lows of 95.3 immediately following the report.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, when the central bank decided to delay hiking rates.

Central bank meetings in Japan, Australia and the U.K. will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 5

Markets in China are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The U.K. is to release data on service sector activity.

In the euro zone, the Eurogroup of finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels.

The Institute of Supply Management is to release data on service sector activity.

Tuesday, October 6

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.

Markets in China are to remain closed for a holiday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Australia is also to release data on the trade balance.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish a report on factory orders. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup of finance ministers are to hold a second day of talks in Brussels.

The U.S. and Canada are to report on their respective trade balances.

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ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.

Wednesday, October 7

Financial markets in China will be closed for holidays.

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The Swiss National Bank is to produce data on foreign currency reserves.

The U.K. is to publish data on industrial production.

Canada is to report on building permits.

Thursday, October 8

Japan is to release reports on core machinery orders and the current account.

The Bank of England is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish the minutes of its meeting.

The ECB is to publish the minutes of its most recent meeting.

BoE Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in Lima later Thursday.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and the Fed is to publish the minutes of its September meeting.

Friday, October 9

Australia is to release data on home loans.

The U.K. is to report on the trade balance.

Canada is to publish its monthly employment report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on import prices.

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